中美贸易冲突的贸易后果——基于中美贸易细分产品数据的研究

The Trade Consequences of the Sino-US Trade Conflict:An Empirical Research Based on Segmented Product Data

基于双重差分模型,依据2014-2019年的中美贸易细分产品月度数据,考量中美贸易冲突对中美两国贸易的影响。结果显示:贸易冲突对中国从美国进口负向影响显著,且在样本期内具有平稳性与持续性;对中国对美出口负向效应显著,且在样本期内呈“倒U型”趋势。事件前期和中期,在“抢出口”效应作用下,贸易冲突对中国对美出口具有短期促进作用;事件后期,对中国对美出口的破坏影响显现。细分产品层面,贸易冲突对中国从美国资本品和消费品的进口负向影响显著,表明国家和个体层面都对贸易有所限制。出口方面,中国消费品出口所受的负向影响较强。同时,中美贸易冲突对于第三国贸易转移效应显著。

This paper studies the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on bilateral trade based on the monthly segmented product data of Sino-US trade from 2014 to 2019.The result shows that the trade conflict between China and the United States has a significant negative impact on China's imports from the United States and this impact is stable and continuous during the sample period.The Sino-US trade conflict also has a significant negative effect on China's exports to the United States,and this effect presents an"inverted U-shaped"trend during the sample period.In the early and mid-term of the event,under the influence of the"export rush"effect,the trade conflict had a short-term promotion effect on China's exports to the United States.In the latter stage of the event,the destructive impact of the trade conflict on China's exports to the United States began to appear.The analysis at the segmented product level shows that the Sino-US trade conflict has the greatest negative impact both on China's imports of capital goods and consumer goods from the US.It shows that in this Sino-US trade conflict,both the country and the masses have restricted trade.As far as exports are concerned,since China's exports to the United States account for a high proportion of consumer goods and are easy to identify,the negative impact on consumer goods is strong.The results of the article also show that trade conflicts have significant trade diversion effects on third countries.