经济集聚、人口流动与住宅价格空间溢出效应研究

Research on Economic Agglomeration,Population Mobility and Spatial Spillover Effect of Housing Prices

基于省级面板数据,利用空间计量模型考量经济集聚、人口流动和住宅价格间的空间溢出效应关系。结果发现:中国省际住宅价格间存在着显著的正向空间相关性,即某一地区住宅价格的波动会受到周边地区或经济特征类似地区住宅价格波动的影响;人口流动在经济集聚和房价的关系中发挥着中介作用;经济集聚与住宅价格在空间上存在着显著的相关关系,经济集聚不仅会推高集聚中心住宅价格,还会通过“虹吸效应”和“涓滴效应”对周边住宅价格产生影响,而经济集聚对周边住宅价格的影响取决于人口净流入率的大小。

Based on the provincial panel data in China,a spatial econometric model was used to examine the spatial spillover effects between economic agglomeration,population mobility,and housing prices.There is a significant positive spatial correlation between provincial housing prices,that is,the fluctuation of housing prices in a certain area will be affected by the fluctuation of housing prices in surrounding areas or areas with similar economic characteristics.Population moblity plays an intermediary role between economic agglomeration and housing prices,and economic agglomeration not only affects housing prices through population mobility,but also has other effects.There is a significant spatial spillover correlation between economic agglomeration and housing prices.Economic agglomeration will not only push up the housing price of the agglomeration center,but also affects the price of surrounding housing through the"siphon effect"and"trickle effect".The effect of economic agglomeration on the prices of surrounding housing depends on the size of the net inflow of population.