全球中间品贸易的网络结构特征演变分析——基于世界投入产出表的研究

Analysis on the Evolution of the Network Structure of Global Intermediate Trade:Based on the Perspective of World Input-Output Table

全球中间品贸易是国际贸易的重要组成部分,中间品贸易网络结构演变能够反映国家(地区)间分工合作体系的变迁。根据世界投入产出表构建全球中间品贸易矩阵,采用中心性、核-边缘分析、凝聚子群等分析方法,研究各个国家(地区)在全球中间品贸易网络中的结构演变。研究表明:全球中间品贸易规模持续增加,美国的中间品占比持续减少,中国占比持续增加,德国占比相对稳定;德国在全球中间品贸易网络中始终占据核心地位,美国的中间品贸易影响力在缩小,中国的影响力在逐渐增强;全球中间品贸易可以分为4个子群,欧盟成员国的联系相对紧密,子群特征变化较小,美国和中国所处的子群变化较为明显。

Global intermediate goods trade is an important part of international trade.The evolution of the network structure of intermediate goods trade can reflect the changes of the system of division of labor and cooperation among countries.According to the world input-output table,the global intermediate goods trade matrix is constructed,and the structural evolution of each country in the global intermediate goods trade network is tracked by means of centrality,nucleus-edge analysis,agglomeration subgroup and other analytical methods.The empirical results show that:First,the scale of global trade in intermediate goods continues to increase,the proportion of intermediate goods of the United States continues to decrease,the proportion of China continues to increase,and the proportion of Germany is relatively stable;Second,Germany has always occupied the core position in the global intermediate goods trade network,while the influence of the United States on intermediate goods trade is shrinking,while that of China is gradually increasing;Third,the global trade in intermediate goods can be divided into four subgroups.The member states of the European Union are closely related and the characteristics of the subgroups change little,while the subgroups of the United States and China change significantly.