中国铝生命周期能耗与碳排放的情景分析及减排对策

Scenario analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chinese aluminum life cycle and emissions reduction measures

铝工业是高能耗高排放工业,探索铝工业的节能减排路径有助于我国实现《巴黎协定》中的温室气体减排承诺.采用物质流分析和生命周期评价方法,基于存量水平、技术水平和能源结构设置了15种情景,研究了我国铝工业1990~2100年的能耗和碳排放量,探索不同路径下的节能减排潜力.我国铝在用存量将在2040~2050年达到峰值(4.6~7.3亿t);原生铝产量在2030年前达到峰值(27~41百万t);再生铝产量在2050~2060年达到峰值(23~48百万t),在2035~2040年超过原生铝产量;在所有情景下,铝工业都可实现能耗和碳排放在2030前达峰的目标,但只有在存量水平最低、技术水平最高和能源结构最优的情景下才可实现减排目标;技术水平的节能减排潜力最大(>45%).为了完成铝工业低碳转型,首要任务是提高技术水平,尤其是提高报废产品的回收利用率,进而提高原料中再生铝的比例.

Exploring the energy conservation and emission reduction pathways of aluminum industry with high energy consumption and emissions intensity will help China to meet the greenhouse gas emission reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement.By applying the material flow analysis(MFA)and life cycle assessment(LCA),this study sets 15 scenarios based on stock,technology,and energy structure to quantify the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Chinese aluminum industry during 1990~2100.This study also explores the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in different pathways.Chinese aluminum stock will peak during 2040~2050(455~733 million tons);the primary aluminum production will peak before 2030(27~41 million tons);the secondary aluminum production will peak during 2050~2060(23~48 million tons),and will exceed the primary aluminum production during 2035~2040.The aluminum industry can achieve the target that energy consumption and carbon emissions should reach the peak by 2030,but only in the scenario which has lowest stock level,the most advanced technology and the optimal energy structure,can China achieve the emission reduction goal.Improving technology is the optimal measure of energy conservation and emission reduction(>45%).To complete the low-carbon transformation of aluminum industry,the main task is to improve technology level,especially improve the recycling rate of aluminum scrap and the proportion of secondary aluminum.