上海市医护比例发展现状及趋势预测研究

Current status and future trend of nurse-to-doctor ratio in Shanghai

目的了解上海市2011~2017年医护比例发展现状,通过构建灰色GM (1.1)模型对上海市未来医护比例变化趋势进行预测分析,以期为相关部门制定卫生人力资源政策提供借鉴和参考。方法根据2012~2018年《上海统计年鉴》,选取执业(助理)医师、注册护士、医护比例等相关数据作为预测指标,分析上海市医护比例现状,构建灰色GM (1.1)预测模型,对上海市2018~2023年医护比例发展趋势进行预测分析。结果所建立的灰色预测模型C<0.35,模型精度(99.59%)较高,可以进行中长期的外推预测。2018~2023年,上海市医护比例将呈现不断上升趋势,到2023年,医护比例将达到1.311。结论上海市医护比例高于全国平均水平,但与部分发达国家相比仍然还有一定的差距。今后上海地区应该继续制定有利于医护比例提升的有效措施,在保持稳定增长的情况下,应该注重于提升的速度,制定完善的护理人员职业晋升机制,提高护理人员的薪资待遇,鼓励高校开设更多的护理专业,加大对高素质护理人才的培养力度,从根源上建立起提升医护比例的长效机制。

Objective To investigate the status quo of nurse-to-doctor ratio(NTDR)in Shanghai from 2011 to 2017 and to predict the future trend of NTDR in Shanghai based on a grey model(GM)(1.1),in an attempt to provide evidence for the development of reasonable health human resources policies.Methods Based on the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2018,relevant data on licensed(assistant)physicians,registered nurses,and NTDR were selected as predictors to analyze the current situation of NTDR in Shanghai;and a GM(1.1)prediction model was constructed to predict the change of NTDR in Shanghai from 2018 to 2023.Results The established gray prediction model C<0.35,had a high model accuracy(99.59%)and could be used for medium-and long-term extrapolation prediction.The NTDR showed an increasing trend from 2018 to 2023 and will reach 1.311 by 2023.Conclusions The NTDR in Shanghai is higher than the national average,but there is still a gap when compared with some developed countries.In the future,Shanghai should continue to develop effective measures to raise its NTDR.In addition to a stable growth,other measures may be taken to ensure its sustainability;career promotion mechanism should be established to increase salary for nurses;and more nursing programs should be developed in medical colleges to ensure the training of nursing talents.