劳动力回流、老龄化与“刘易斯转折点”

Return Migration,Aging and the“Lewis Turning Point”

接受刘易斯转折点到来经历了一个较长的时期,原因在于持续的工资上涨与大量农业剩余劳动力长期并存。本文基于农村劳动力回流和老龄化现象,以剩余劳动力结构变化为视角,重新梳理刘易斯第一转折点与剩余劳动力之间的逻辑关系;并根据来自八省的整村调查数据以及与全国人口统计数据进行匹配,实证分析初次转移、从未转移和净回流的劳动力数量与结构变化。研究表明,刘易斯第一转折点在2008年已然到来,但由于劳动力回流和老龄化的影响,农村仍存在大量的剩余劳动力。因此,要避免农业劳动生产率滞后对整体经济产生"拖后腿"效应,需要进一步推动以农民工市民化为核心的户籍制度改革和推进农业现代化生产,来实现农村劳动力继续转移。

The acceptance of the Lewis turning point has taken a long period of time,for the long-term coexistence of continuous rise in wages and surplus agricultural labors.Based on the phenomenon of return migration and aging,from the perspective of surplus labors’structure,this paper theoretically explains the logical relationship between the Lewis First Turning Point and the surplus agricultural labors.Using the data collected from villages in 8 provinces and matching them with the national demographic data,it is performed to analyze the amount and structure of first-time transfers,non-transfers,and net return transfers.The research shows that the Lewis First Turning Point has arrived in 2008 already,but there is still a large amount of agricultural surplus labors in the countryside due to the return migration and aging.Therefore,to avoid the lag of agricultural labor productivity dragging the overall economy,it’s necessary to further promote the reform of the household registration system and modernization of agricultural production to achieve the continued transfer of rural labors.