中美第一阶段贸易协定对中美农产品贸易的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of the First Phase Sino-US Trade Agreement on Bilateral Agricultural Trade

按照中美第一阶段贸易协定的具体规定,从美进口农产品数额将显著增长。根据中国及从美进口农产品的变化特征、中美第一阶段贸易协定中关于农产品进口的规则和双边成本比较,预计从美进口增长潜力最大的是畜产品。同时,畜产品进口与饲料进口之间存在"抵消效应",在进口增量既定的情况下,饲料进口被替代后,畜产品进口将被迫进一步提高,从而加剧对畜产品产业冲击。研究结果表明,应尽量扩大饲料量和纺织原材料进口以最大化国内农业产值;同时,关注畜产品进口对国内畜牧业产出和生产方式的影响,制定针对性扶持政策。

According to the specific provisions of the first phase of the Sino-US trade agreement,imports of agricultural products from the United States should increase significantly.Having analyzed on the changing characteristics of agricultural products imported from the United States,and the detailed regulations set in the agreement and the cost comparison of main agricultural products,it is expected that the largest growth of agricultural products imported from the United States is livestock products.Meanwhile,there exists so-called"offset effect"between the import of livestock products and feeds.Under the circumstance of a fixed increment of imports,the import of livestock products will be forced to increase further,which will intensify the negative impact on domestic livestock industries.Based on our findings,we suggest that China should increase more import of feeds and raw textile materials to maximize the value-added of agricultural sector.Meanwhile,the impacts on livestock production and its production pattern should be supervised closely and the necessary support policies should be formulated and provided timely.