新冠肺炎疫情对我国产业链的影响及对策:基于关键产业链的初步分析

The Impacts of COVID-19 on China’s Industrial Supply Chains:Preliminary Analysis

中央提出"六稳"和"六保"措施,应对新冠肺炎疫情对经济的冲击,其中稳定产业链供应链是重中之重。本文基于1997年至2015年区分加工贸易的投入产出表,界定出中国近二十年来六条关键产业链为纺织业、通用专用设备、电气机械及器材制造业、金属制品业、化学工业以及运输、仓储及邮电业,分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国产业链的长短期影响。从疫情常态化来看,数字技术将成为重要的生产要素,稳固国内产业链的同时,理应围绕产业链部署创新链,聚焦产业链数字化和智能化,将数字技术贯穿产业链发展的各环节和产品全生命周期。从而,打造自主可控产业链,提升国际竞争力,稳步实现高效的国内国际双循环,为最终实现伟大复兴目标奠定坚实基础。

The central government of China has initiated numerous measures to combat the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy.Among them,stabilizing the industrial supply chains is one of the top priorities.This paper starts with the analysis of the typical characteristics of the impact of the COVID-19 on the industrial chains,to examine whether the epidemic will trigger or accelerate the"new normal"of globalization through the transmission of the industrial chains.Then,we propose the definition of the industrial chains and identify key industrial chains,and clarify the determinants and factors that affect the development of the industrial chain as well as the extent of the impact.Looking ahead,digital technology will become an important production factor.While stabilizing the domestic industrial chain,innovation chains should be deployed around the industrial chain,focusing on the digitization and intelligence of the industrial chain,and integrating digital technology throughout the development of the global industrial chain and the full life cycle of products to create indigenous industrial chain.In this way,it is expected that international competitiveness can be enhanced,and an efficient domestic and international dual circulation could be steadily realized.