外部冲击、社会网络与移民搬迁农户的适应性

External shocks,social networks and adaptability of resettled farming households

农户适应性是评估移民搬迁政策有效性的核心指标,更是指导移民搬迁后续扶持工作的重要抓手。本文基于陕南3市8县1250户移民搬迁农户的数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法实证检验了外部冲击视角下移民搬迁农户的社会网络对其适应性的影响机制。研究结果表明,社会网络可以通过风险分担机制帮助贫困人口有效抵御风险冲击,但由于扩大网络规模及维持关系强度需要更高水平的投资,进而对移民搬迁农户造成了次生风险。同时,社会网络可以通过机会共享机制帮助非贫困人口有效把握外部机会,且非贫困人口的投资回报率要高于贫困人口。因此,需完善移民搬迁社区周边的产业政策配套,加快移民搬迁农户的社区融入,也要加强对移民搬迁农户可能遭遇风险的事前防范,及不可抗风险冲击发生后的及时救助,进一步加大外部机会供给,降低外部机会门槛。

Farming household adaptability is not only the core indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of resettlement policy,but also an important starting point to guide the follow-up support work of resettlement.Based on the data of 1250 resettled farming households in eight counties and three cities in southern Shaanxi Province,this study empirically tested the impact mechanism of the social network of resettled farmers on their adaptability from the perspective of risk and opportunity by means of instrumental variable method.It is found that:(1)Social networks can help poor people to effectively resist external shocks through risk sharing mechanisms.(2)Social networks can help non-poor people to grasp external opportunities effectively through the mechanism of opportunity sharing.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the industrial development policy support around relocated communities,and accelerate the integration of resettled farming households into the communities.At the same time,it is necessary to reduce the risks that resettled farming households may encounter and strengthen timely assistance after the occurrence of irresistible shocks.