汉语国际传播风险评估体系构建刍议

On the Construction of a Risk Assessment System for International Chinese-language Spread

目前国际形势复杂且严峻,汉语国际传播的风险升级。文章在分析导致汉语国际传播风险升级的宏观环境、汉语国际传播特性和传播风险特性的基础上,依据Cooper提出的语言传播的7个变量和拉斯韦尔的语言传播"5W模式"的理论,借鉴英国文化协会采取的ERMF风险管理框架,构建了包含2个一级指标、8个二级指标和39个三级指标的汉语国际传播风险评估指标体系,并进一步论述了该指标体系的适用范围、适用性和预期效果。构建科学合理、切实有效的汉语国际传播风险评估体系,旨在为汉语国际传播风险建立预警系统,从而降低风险概率,消减风险后果,为汉语国际传播事业保驾护航。

At present,the international situation is complex and grim,and the risk of international Chinese-language spread continues to escalate.Based on the analysis of the macro-environment leading to the escalation of the risk of international Chinese-language spread as well as the characteristics and risks in this process,this paper draws lessons from the ERMF adopted by the British Council according to the seven variables of language communication put forward by Cooper and Lasswell’s theory of“5W model”of language communication.This paper constructs a risk assessment index system of international Chinese-language spread,which includes 2 first-level indicators,8 second-level indicators and 39 third-level indicators,and further discusses its applicable scope,applicability and expected effects.The purpose of constructing a scientific,reasonable and effective risk assessment system for international Chinese-language spread is to establish an early warning system for the relevant risks so as to reduce the risk probability and risk consequences,and fulfill the mission of international Chinese-language spread.