中国省际知识溢出对区域创新绩效的非线性影响研究

Nonlinear effect of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance in China

为深入分析知识溢出对区域创新绩效的影响机理,本文采用2009-2016年中国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,运用Hansen门限面板回归模型,以区域消化吸收能力为门限变量,实证考察了不同门限效应下省际知识溢出对区域创新绩效的非线性影响。研究结果表明:省际知识溢出对区域创新绩效的影响不仅仅限于简单线性关系或U型及倒U型关系,而存在着以区域消化吸收能力为双重门限的复杂非线性显著特征,且两个门限估计值均通过了LR统计量的真实性检验;区域消化吸收能力处于小于-1.923、[-1.923,1.344]、大于1.344时,省际知识溢出对区域创新绩效的影响系数分别为0.4252、0.4482、0.4637,其促进作用大致呈现出阶梯式上升的趋势;中国区域消化吸收能力存在明显的时空分异特征,且整体处于中等水平,区域间差异程度逐渐加大。在实证研究的基础上,提出了降低省际知识溢出壁垒、提高区域消化吸收能力以及缩小区域差距等对策,以期为促进区域创新绩效提升、推动区域创新协调发展提供有效借鉴与参考。

As an essential measure to implement the innovation-driven development strategy,regional innovation system is an important part of the modern economic system.The improvement of regional innovation performance is the key to the development of regional innovation system.From a realistic perspective,knowledge spillover is an important way to influence regional innovation performance.What's more,knowledge spillover effect will be affected and restricted by regional digestion and absorption capacity.Accordingly,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship among the three for promoting regional innovation performance,promoting technological progress,and achieving regional coordinated development.To analyze deeply the influence mechanism of knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance,this paper selects regional innovation performance as the dependent variable,inter-provincial knowledge spillover as the core independent variable,regional digestion and absorption capacity as the threshold variable,R&D manpower input,the structure of regional innovation system,government support level,traffic condition,openness and foreign direct investment as control variables.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial regions of China in 2009-2016,this paper uses the Hansen threshold panel regression model to empirically analyze the nonlinear effect of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance under different threshold effects.The following conclusions are drawn.First,the impact of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance is not limited to simple linear relationship or U-shaped and inverted U-shaped framework,but also has the complex nonlinear feature of the double thresholds of regional digestion and absorption capacity.Meanwhile,both threshold estimates pass the authenticity test of LR statistics.Second,the impact of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance is still limited by the regional digestion and absorption capacity.And under the different threshold interval constraints,the promotion of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance is different,showing a stepped upward trend.When the regional digestion and absorption capacity is less than-1.923,[-1.923,1.344],and greater than 1.344,the influence coefficients of inter-provincial knowledge spillover are 0.4252,0.4482 and 0.4637 respectively.It shows that the promotion of inter-provincial knowledge spillover is improving.Third,China's regional digestion and absorption capacity has obvious characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation.Its overall situation is at a medium level,and the degree of regional differences gradually increases.Regions with low digestion and absorption capacity are gradually expanding,and most of them belong to the west area.Regions with high digestion and absorption capacity are gradually decreasing,and most of them belong to the east area.Regions with middle digestion and absorption capacity are unchanged.Fourth,for control variables,R&D manpower input,the structure of regional innovation system and foreign direct investment have significant positive effects on regional innovation performance.But traffic condition has a significant negative impact on regional innovation performance.The impact of government support level and openness is not significant.Finally,the corresponding optimization countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the research results.(1)While carrying out independent innovation,all regions should pay full attention to the positive effect of inter-provincial knowledge spillover,and reduce the barriers of inter-provincial knowledge spillover.(2)To maximize the role of inter-provincial knowledge spillover on regional innovation performance,appropriate regional digestion and absorption policies should be formulated for different regions.(3)All regions should narrow regional gaps and promote the overall improvement of China's regional digestion and absorption capacity.(4)For control variables,on the one hand,each region should increase R&D manpower input and foreign direct investment,attach importance to the main innovation status of enterprises,universities and research institutions,and promote the industry-university-research cooperation innovation.On the other hand,while improving the condition of transportation infrastructure,each region should try to weaken the negative impact of the competition effect of regional innovation。