产能过剩偏向性与环境污染——基于中介效应的检验

Preference of overcapacity and environmental pollution:A test based on mediating effect

如何从矫正制度性缺失来破解我国环境污染较难根治且易于反复之谜是我国当前亟待解决的问题之一。本文尝试从行业和企业两个维度,基于中介效应模型,以产能过剩偏向性为视角来廓清中国环境污染治理之殇,并以顶层设计为抓手来明晰环境污染治理之道。研究发现:(1)产能过剩与环境污染的关系依赖于产能过剩在行业和企业维度上的偏向性,产能过剩是影响我国环境污染的重要原因,不同维度产能过剩的偏向性能够对环境污染产生较为显著的影响;(2)产能过剩偏向于污染密集型行业主要通过能源结构锁定效应和产业结构固化效应而加剧环境污染,产能过剩偏向于国有企业主要通过技术结构低端化效应而影响环境污染;(3)产能过剩偏向性作用于环境污染的路径不仅存在显著的市场化程度的调节效应,还存在着严重的区域异质性、水平异质性和阶段异质性。文章为推进制度变革、优化存量产能和有效治理环境污染提供了理论支持。

The worsening environmental pollution is caused not only directly by massive energy consumption and excessive emission of pollutants,but also by underlying institutional factors.In 2016,a new goal of environmental protection was presented and emphasized in the“13th Five-year Plan”,with as many as 10 of the 13 obligatory targets involving resources and environment.To achieve this goal,environmental pollution control is strengthened in China with investments increased year by year,but little significant effect has been achieved and the result is far different from public perception.It is worth noting that the recent problem of excess capacity in most industries of China is one of the basic factors that affect industrial upgrading and stability of the macro-economy.Under the specific political circumstances,the excess capacity of China is different in character,which is embodied in its tendency in industrial and corporate dimensions.The excess capacity tendency is one of the double distorted mechanisms shown prominently in the economic development of China,and will have an impact that cannot be ignored on environmental pollution in China.On this basis,this paper makes an attempt to analyze the institutional causes of repeatedly intensified environmental pollution in China from the perspective of the excess capacity tendency in industrial and corporate dimensions,with the provincial panel data,industry data and corporate data of 30 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet)in China from 2003 to 2014,based on the mediating effect model,to provide a new perspective and ideas for the effective control of environmental pollution.Research findings:First,the relationship between excess capacity and environmental pollution depends on the excess capacity tendency in industrial and corporate dimensions,and excess capacity is an important factor affecting environmental pollution in China,the tendency of which in different dimensions can have a significant influence on environmental pollution.The excess capacity tendency in pollution-intensive industries intensifies environmental pollution mainly through the energy structure lock-in effect and the industrial structure solidification effect,and in state-owned enterprises,influences environmental pollution mainly through the low-end technical structure effect.Besides,the above mechanisms show severe regional,level and stage heterogeneity.Second,there is a significant moderating effect of the marketization level in the path of the excess capacity tendency affecting environmental pollution,that is,significant interaction between the marketization level and the energy structure lock-in effect,industrial structure solidification effect,and undiversified property right structure effect.With the improvement of the marketization level,the mediating effect of energy structure lock-in is-0.131,-0.119 and-0.096,that of industrial structure solidification is-0.148,-0.134 and-0.114,and that of undiversified property right structure is-0.069,-0.060 and-0.055,respectively.Moreover,at the three levels of marketization,all the values of the mediating effect are significant except that of undiversified property right structure which finally becomes insignificant.In other words,the mediating effect decreases with the improvement of the marketization level until it disappears.Therefore,the improvement of the marketization level is an important way to eliminate the effect of excess capacity on environmental pollution.This paper provides a theoretical basis for the promotion of institutional reform,optimization of stock capacity and effective control of environmental pollution.