中国省际水资源压力的转移模式

Deciphering the pattern for inter-provincial water stress transferring:a case study on China’s mainland

中国当前面临着水资源供需空间分布不匹配的问题,水资源短缺成为部分地区社会经济发展的重要限制因素。如何统筹和协调区域间的水资源利用成为保障中国整体水资源安全的重大难题。随着区域间商品与服务流动的日益频繁,虚拟水流动极大程度上促进了水资源利用在空间上的重新分配。因此,识别中国的虚拟水流动格局和水资源压力转移模式,有助于解析中国当前水资源空间配置存在的问题以及未来优化的可能路径。基于此,本文采用多区域投入产出模型核算了2007年和2012年中国30个省级行政区(不含西藏和港澳台地区)的虚拟水流量和水足迹,并结合水资源压力指数核算了稀缺水流量和稀缺水足迹,以此为指标量化分析了中国各地最终需求引起的水资源压力程度、压力转移方向及其变化趋势,评价了虚拟水流动格局下中国水资源空间配置的协调程度。研究结果表明,西北地区和相对发达的直辖市的需求引起的水资源压力水平显著高于其他地区;西北地区对高耗水产品的需求以本地供给为主,而相对发达的直辖市则凭借自身区位优势和强大的需求拉力更多地将水资源压力转移到了其他地区;国内需求引起的水资源压力转移格局基本呈现由沿海地区向北方内陆地区转移的态势。在2007年至2012年间,西南地区需求引起的水资源压力程度较低但呈上升趋势;同时,国内商品流动深化导致虚拟水流动在地区间进一步均匀和分散,相对缺水的北部沿海和东部沿海地区在一定程度上减少了对同样缺水的黄河中游和西北地区等的水资源需求,但水资源丰富的南部沿海和西南地区却向西北地区转移更多水资源压力,西北地区在中国水资源压力转移中所扮演的承担者角色越来越显著。由此可见,中国未能有效利用丰水地区的水资源来满足缺水地区的需求,虚拟水流动格局缺乏合理性,且这种不合理性对部分缺水地区仍在不断加重。因此,基于中国水资源量的空间分布特征科学调整水资源密集型产业分布,逐步推进重点地区以水定产、合理消费,有助于实现水资源的空间均衡分布和可持续利用。

There is an uneven spatial distribution in water supply and water demand across the provinces of China’s mainland.Water shortage has become a key restriction on the socioeconomic development of some areas.Hence,how to coordinate regional water utilization is one of the great challenges for ensuring China’s water safety.As commodities and services flow across regions more and more frequently,virtual water flow to a large extent induces the spatial redistribution of water utilization among regions.Therefore,it is essential to understand the pattern of China’s virtual water flow and transferring pressures of water resources to seek ways of optimization of water utilization across provinces.This paper calculated virtual water flows and water footprints of 30 provinces of China’s mainland(excluding Tibet)in 2007 and 2012 based on the multi-regional input-output model,and combined with water stress index to quantify the scarce water flows and scarce water footprints,so as to identify the degrees and transferring directions of pressures of water resources and their trends and to evaluate the degree of spatial coordination of China’s water resource in the context of virtual water flow.The results showed that:the final demands of China’s northwest and Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin induced more significant water stress than other provinces;water intensive products demanded by the northwestern region were dominated by local supply,while the relatively developed municipalities transferred water stress outward owing to their position advantages and massive demands;the pattern of transferring pressures of water resource driven by final demands on China’s mainland was generally shifting from coastal regions to northern inland regions.During the period from 2007 to 2012,the southwestern region’s demands induced less water stress degree,which was in an upward trend,however;meanwhile,more frequent domestic products flows caused more dispersed and even virtual water flows across regions.Although water-deficient northern coastal region and eastern coastal region to some extend reduced demands for water from the middle Yellow River economic zone,the northwestern region and some other regions that were also poor in water resources,water-rich southern coastal region and southwestern region transferred higher water pressure to the northwestern region,which played a more and more important role in undertaking water pressures transferred by other regions.Hence,China’s existing virtual water pattern failed to effectively transfer the water resources in water-rich areas to satisfy the demands of water-deficient areas.China’s virtual water flow pattern lacked rationality,and water-deficient regions even suffered more and more water pressures.Therefore,to realize the coordinated distribution and sustainable use of water resources in the long-term,it is essential to scientifically adjust the spatial distribution of water-intensive industries based on the spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in China,and to promote water-saving-oriented development and rational consumption in key areas.