湖北枣阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎流行因素分析与防控效果评价

Analysis of epidemic factors of COVID-19 and evaluation of prevention and control effect in Zaoyang

目的分析枣阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行特征、相关因素和防控效果,为今后疫情预防控制提供参考依据。方法依据病例的个案调查表和密切接触者的基本情况,按相关因素分别统计,使用SPSS 17.0对相关因素进行统计学处理。结果枣阳市报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例194例,死亡4例,报告发病率为17.13/10万,病死率为2.06%;首例至最后病例发病历时35d,输入性病例发病高峰后3~5d为本地病例发病高峰;平均发病年龄为45.40岁,60岁及以上人群占比为16.49%;病例中有武汉旅居史和返枣接触史者分别占46.39%、27.32%;密切接触者中以夫妻关系和子女关系发病率最高;和处于潜伏期的病例同乘私家车从武汉返/来枣阳的密接者与无同乘史密接者之间发病率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);聚集性疫情中,家庭的首发病例咳嗽率明显高于散发病例咳嗽率;实施严格封闭管理后,入院前病程缩短了2.20d,突破性病例仅占本地病例的12.50%。结论有武汉旅居史和返枣接触史是主要的危险因素;抓好家庭内预防可有效减少发病;有咳嗽症状的病例更易造成聚集性疫情的发生;枣阳市防控措施科学、及时、精准,有效地控制了本地病例的发生。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics,related factors and prevention and control effects of COVID-19 in Zaoyang City,and to provide references for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in the future.Methods Data on cases and their close contacts was collected using survey questionnaires.The data was summarized and the relevant factors were statistically analyzed with SPSS17.0.Results A total of 194 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in Zaoyang City,including 4 deaths.The reported incidence was 17.13/100,000,and the case mortality rate was 2.06%.The onset of the first case to the last case lasted for 35 days.The peak incidence of local cases occurred 3-5 days after the peak of the imported cases.The average age of onset was 45.40 years,and the proportion of people aged 60 years and above was 16.49%.46.39%of the cases had travel history in Wuhan and 27.32%had contact history back in Zaoyang.Among the close contacts,the incidence of the disease was highest between husband and wife as well as parents and children.There was no statistical significance in the incidence rate between those who traveled in a private car from Wuhan to Zaoyang with cases in the incubation period and those who did not.The cough rate of the first case in the family was significantly higher in cluster cases than that in sporadic cases.After the implementation of strict closed management,the course of the disease before admission was shortened by 2.2d,and the breakthrough cases accounted for only 12.50%of the local cases.Conclusion A history of living in Wuhan and a history of returning to Zaoyang with exposure were major risk factors.Family prevention could effectively reduce the incidence of the disease.Cases with cough symptoms were more likely to cause cluster outbreaks.The prevention and control measures in Zaoyang City are scientific,timely and accurate,which effectively controlled the occurrence of local cases.