基于博弈论视角的国家安全贸易壁垒探析

An Analysis of National Security Trade Barriers Based on Game Theory

随着逆全球化抬头,国家安全贸易壁垒形成日渐增多,甚至成为发达霸权国家打压新兴发展中国家的工具。政治利益是推动国家安全贸易壁垒发起的重要因素,政治性是国家安全贸易壁垒的重要特性。在当前时代背景,发达霸权国家设置国家安全贸易壁垒有一定的必然性。本文从新兴发展中国家崛起,发达霸权国家日渐衰退这一时代背景出发,构建动态博弈模型,对壁垒的设置、形成和强度进行分析,提出了“容忍产量比”概念。新兴发展中国家通过必要的反制,可以达到动态博弈纳什均衡。我国要准确把握国家安全贸易壁垒的政治特性,尽快建立“不可靠实体清单”,支持战略性新兴产业核心产业链国产化,积极制定和完善应对机制。

With the rise of anti-globalization,trade barriers in the name of national security is growing,and even serves as a tool for developed hegemonic countries to suppress emerging developing countries.Political interests are an important factor to promote national security trade barriers.Politicalness is the feature of national security trade barriers.Considering current situation,it is inevitable for developed hegemonic countries to impose national security trade barriers.Starting from the background of the emergence of developing countries and the declining of developed hegemonic countries,this paper constructs a dynamic game model to analyze the imposing,formation and intensity of trade barriers,and proposes the concept of"tolerance to output ratio".Emerging developing countries can achieve a dynamic Nash equilibrium through necessary countermeasures.China should clearly grasp the political characteristics of national security barriers to trade,establish a list of unreliable entities as soon as possible,support the localization of the core industrial chain of strategic emerging industries,and actively formulate and improve response mechanisms.