基于GIS的气候变化对马铃薯生长的脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Assessment of Potato Growth under Climate Change based on GIS

利用层次分析和专家打分法构建了气候变化对内蒙古马铃薯生产的脆弱性影响评价指标体系,运用脆弱性的定义及灾害风险的理论建立了马铃薯脆弱性综合指数评估模型,通过分析主产区的敏感性、适应性来评估脆弱性影响程度。结果表明:内蒙古马铃薯生产脆弱性分布呈中部高、东西部低的分布特点。以乌兰察布市中部、呼和浩特市南部、包头市南部及锡林郭勒盟西南部脆弱性为最高;呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟、通辽市及鄂尔多斯市南部脆弱性为最低;赤峰市大部、巴彦淖尔市及鄂尔多斯市北部为中等。针对主产区马铃薯生长脆弱性的成因,提出了应分别采取不同的应对措施。研究结果可为自治区马铃薯生产可持续发展提供科学依据。

In this paper,an index system for evaluating the impacts of climate change on potato production vulnerability in Inner Mongolia is established.By using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and expert scoring method,using the definition of vulnerability and the theory of disaster risk,the Comprehensive Vulnerability Index Evaluation Model of potato is established.And the vulnerability influence degree is evaluated by analyzing the sensitivity and adaptability of main producti on area.The results showed that the vulnerability distribution of potato production in Inner Mongolia is high in the middle and low in the east and West.The Ulanqab,the Hohhot,the south of Baotou and the southwest of Xilingol League are the most vulnerable.The Eastern Hulunbuir,Hinggan League,Tongliao and the southern part of the Ordos City are the least vulnerable,while most of the rest of Chifeng,the Bayannur and the northern Ordos City were medium vulnerable.According to the cause of formation of potato vulnerability in main production area,different countermeasures were put forward.The results can provide scientific basis for sustainable development of potato production in the autonomous region.