中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

Evaluation Index Construction and Hazard Risk Assessment on Apple Drought in Northern China

以中国北方苹果主产区为研究对象,利用1981—2018年气象资料、1981—2017年苹果干旱灾情历史资料和发育期资料,在构建干旱指数(DI)的基础上,以历史灾情反演、灾害样本重建和历史灾害过程解析为主线,采用独立样本T检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验、累积概率反函数值等方法,构建适用于中国北方苹果主产区的苹果干旱等级指标体系,并在此基础上开展苹果干旱危险性评价。结果表明:构建的干旱指数(DI)能有效表征苹果干旱灾害,同一等级苹果不同发育期干旱指标阈值从大到小依次为果树萌动-萌芽期、萌芽-盛花期和盛花-成熟期,苹果危险性从大到小依次为萌芽-盛花期、果树萌动-萌芽期和盛花-成熟期,渤海湾产区及黄土高原产区北部是苹果干旱的高危险区域。基于历史灾情资料加工与再分析的苹果干旱等级指标体系构建方法可为经济林果气象灾害研究提供新思路,研究结果可为中国北方苹果干旱防灾减损气象服务、灾害保险提供基础支撑。

It is of great merit to construct apple drought index and analyze its hazard risk so as to support apple drought monitoring,prevention and mitigation,as well as agricultural disaster insurance management.Based on meteorological data,associated with historical disaster and phenophase data,apple drought index(DI)in northern China is firstly constructed,which fully considered previous and current water demand and precipitation supply.Afterwards,historical disaster remodeling,disaster sample reconstruction and process-based historical disaster analysis are comprehensively used as key technologies in evaluating the level of apple drought,integrating the independent sample T-test,Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test,cumulative probability inverse method,etc.Meanwhile,the apple drought risk is consequently estimated to seek the characteristics of apple drought hazard in detail.The results show that there are significant differences by independent T-test of drought index(DI)between historical recorded disaster samples and the non-disaster samples in three apple tree phenophases,i.e.,the tree germinating to flower budding period,flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature periods(passing the test of 0.05 level).Therefore,the apple drought index constructed can effectively represent the drought disaster in different stages of apple development.The threshold of DI in the same level is higher in tree germinating to flower budding period,followed by flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature periods.The drought risk during flower budding to full bloom is high with regional average apple drought hazard index(M)of 0.44,followed by tree germinating to flower budding period and full bloom to mature period,with reginal average M of 0.40 and 0.25,respectively.Furthermore,the Bohai Bay region and northern Loess Plateau are detected as high-risk areas of apple drought.The evaluation method of apple drought based on historical disaster processing and re-analysis can provide new ideas for economic forest and fruit meteorological disaster research.The results of apple drought hazard risk assessment could provide evidence for the prevention and mitigation of apple drought in northern China.