后苏联空间的发展趋势与未来预测

The Development and Future Trend of Post-Soviet Space

后苏联空间是伴随苏联解体而产生的世界地缘政治区域,向心力与离心力相互交织对其产生影响。学界对于后苏联空间的性质、存在现状和未来发展趋势颇具争议。当前,以俄罗斯作为主导力量的后苏联空间依然存在,未来,后苏联空间保持稳定还是趋于分离很大程度上取决于俄罗斯的经济潜力与安全保障能力。若欧亚经济联盟与“一带一路”能够成功实现战略对接,则后苏联空间更有可能在未来“溶入”大欧亚体系中。

The post-Soviet space is a geopolitical area of the world,which is influenced by both centripetal force and centrifugal force.It comes into being with the disintegration of the Soviet Union.The academic circles are quite controversial about the nature,current status and future development trends of post-Soviet space.This article supposes that the current post-Soviet space still exists with Russia as the dominant force.The stability or separation of the post-Soviet space in the future depends largely on Russia s economic potential and security capabilities.If the Eurasian Economic Union and the"Belt and Road"can successfully achieve strategic docking,then the post-soviet space is more likely to“integrate”in the“Greater Eurasian”system in the future.