中国面向东盟十国OFDI的区位选择研究——基于投资引力模型的面板数据检验

A Study on China’s Location Choice for ASEAN OFDI—Panel Data Test Based on Investment Gravity Model

本文利用2008—2018年中国对东盟十个国家的对外直接投资面板数据,基于投资引力模型分析了中国对东盟OFDI区位选择的影响因素。通过检验得出的具体结论如下:我国国内生产总值和东盟国家国内生产总值、经济自由度指数、与中国有共同边界、同为APEC成员等因素对我国在东盟国家的OFDI有着显著正相关影响,而东盟国家的资源密度和技术水平对我国在东盟国家的OFDI有着显著负相关影响。另外,对于人类发展指数排名中高于中国的东盟国家,我国在对其进行对外直接投资区位选择时,应重点考虑我国国内生产总值、东道国资源密度、东道国经济自由度指数三方面因素;对于排名低于我国的东盟国家,我国在进行OFDI区位选择时,应重点考虑我国国内生产总值和东道国国内生产总值、技术水平、经济自由度指数、是否与我国有共同边界等因素。

Drawing on the OFDI data of China to ten ASEAN countries from 2008 to 2018,the paper analyzes the factors influencing China’s location choice for ASEAN OFDI based on the investment gravity model.The specific conclusions are as follows:factors such China’s GDP,ASEAN countries’GDP,economic freedom index,common borders with China and APEC membership have significant positive correlation effect on China’s OFDI in ASEAN countries,while resource density and technical level of ASEAN countries have a significant negative impact on China’s OFDI in ASEAN countries.In addition,for the ASEAN countries ranking higher in the human development index than China,China should focus on considering three factors:China’s GDP,the host country’s resource density and economic freedom index;for ASEAN countries ranking lower than China,China should focus on the following factors in making OFDI location choice:China’s GDP,the host country’s GDP,technical level,economic freedom index,and whether there is a common border with China.