基于HEC-HMS的西南山区中小河流洪水预报研究

Flood Forecasting of Small-medium Rivers in Southwest China Using HEC-HMS Model

针对目前中小河流洪水预报难度较大、预报精度偏低的问题,以西南山区荥经河流域为例,基于HECHMS构建了荥经河流域分布式水文模型,以2009~2018年23场洪水进行参数率定,4场洪水进行模型验证。通过参数敏感性分析和有效率定,模拟的洪水过程与实测洪水过程吻合较好,其中模拟洪峰流量平均误差为6.81%,平均纳什效率系数为0.84。可见构建的HEC-HMS洪水预报模型对荥经河流域有很好的模拟效果,可为西南山区其他中小河流的洪水预报提供借鉴和参考。

Flood forecasting for small-medium rivers is quite difficult and the forecast accuracy is low at present.This paper selects the Yingjinghe River Basin in the southwest mountainous region as the research area,and constructs a distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model for the Yingjinghe River Basin.Parameter calibration is performed for 23 flood events during 2009-2018,and four flood events are used for model validation.Through parameter sensitivity analysis and effective calibration,the average error of the simulated peak flow is 6.81%,and the average Nash efficiency coefficient is0.84.The simulated flood process agrees well with the measured flood process.The results indicate that the HEC-HMS flood prediction model is suitable for hydrological simulation in the Yingjinghe River Basin,which can provide reference for the flood prediction of the other small-medium rivers in the southwest mountain area.