审计师能识别分析师预测传递的风险信号吗——基于关键审计事项语调的文本分析

Can Auditors Identify the Risk Signals Delivered in Analysts'Forecast:A Textual Analysis Based on the Tone of Key Audit Matters

以2017—2018年我国A股上市公司为样本,研究了由分析师盈利预测与审计师收益预期之间的差距所衍生的分析师预测风险信号对关键审计事项语调的影响。研究发现:分析师预测风险越高,关键审计事项语调越消极;媒体监督对二者的负相关关系具有正向调节作用,分析师的预测质量对二者的负相关关系具有负向调节作用。进一步的机制研究发现:分析师预测风险是通过揭示盈余管理风险进而影响关键审计师事项语调的。

Taking China’s A-share listed companies from 2017 to 2018 as the samples, this paper studies the impact of risk signals forecast by analysts on the tone of key audit matters, which derives from the gap between analysts’ earnings forecast and auditors’ earnings expecta tions. The findings show that the higher the analysts’ forecast risks are, the more negative the tone of key audit matters will be. Media supervision has a positive moderating effect on the negative correlation between the two;while the quality of analysts’ forecasts has a negative moderating effect on the negative correlation between the two. The result of further mechanism study indicates that it is by revealing the earnings management risks that the analysts’ forecast risks will affect the tone of key audit matters.