基于案例推理的跨流域调水明渠工程事故应急决策方法研究

Research on the Emergency Decision–Making Method for the Open Channel Engineering Accident of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Based on Case-Based Reasoning

为提高跨流域调水明渠工程事故的应急处置能力,提出一种基于案例推理的明渠工程事故应急决策方法。对跨流域调水明渠工程事故的特征属性进行提炼归纳,利用框架表示法对事故案例进行组织表达;依据两级检索策略,从案例库中获取符合事故基本特征信息的源案例集,采用模糊层次分析法确定各属性指标权重,并结合属性相似度和结构相似度构建情景匹配模型;通过案例分析证明了该方法在跨流域调水明渠工程事故应急决策辅助救援方面具有实用价值。

Aiming at improving the emergency handing ability of open channel engineering accident of inter-basin water transfer,an emergency decision-making method adopting case-based reasoning is used in the open channel engineering accidents. First,the characteristics of open channel engineering accidents of inter-basin water transfer are refined and summarized,and the frame representation is used to organize the accident cases. Second,according to a two-level retrieval strategy,the case set that meets the basic characteristics of accidents is obtained from the case library. A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each attribute indicator,and the scenario matching model is constructed by combining attribute similarity and structural similarity. Finally,through case study,it proves that this method has practical value in emergency decision-making and auxiliary rescue of open channel engineering accident of inter-basin water transfer.