主观意愿能撬动旅游消费吗?——以家庭旅游中的“预先保证”行为为例

Can Subjective Intention Leverage Actual Consumption?Take the Precommitment in Family Travel as an Example

促进旅游消费是扩大国民消费的重要途径之一,而家庭出游意愿对旅游消费具有重要影响。本文在借鉴自我控制和预先保证理论基础上,构建了家庭旅游消费意愿影响旅游消费的理论框架,基于2016年中国国民旅游休闲调查数据进行了实证检验。结果表明:家庭出游意愿作为一种典型的内生性预先保证,能显著提高家庭出游行为与超额旅游消费行为发生的概率、扩大家庭旅游消费规模。并且,这一影响效应受到家庭价值信念的正向调节。本文的研究结果证实消费意愿具有实际的消费支出效果,为消费意愿和消费支出的关系研究提供了新论据。最后,本文建议在疫后恢复经济和提振消费时应细化消费意愿、优化意愿属性并注重发挥文化价值信念对消费意愿的引导作用。

The“COVID-2019”epidemic has caused a serious impact on China's consumption economy.As the external economy is more seriously affected by the epidemic,and the domestic production investment is still restricted by the epidemic prevention and control,whether the post epidemic economy can recover as scheduled largely depends on whether the consumption can be effectively boosted.As we all know,the most important factor determining consumption is income.However,the epidemic has caused a major blow to income.Although various regions have issued policies to increase income such as issuing consumption vouchers and reducing taxes and fees,the practice of boosting domestic demand by increasing income in the short term is still facing great uncertainty.Therefore,governments at all levels need to adjust measures to local conditions,pool their wisdom,seek new ideas and means to boost consumption,and improve the probability and scale of actual consumption.The theory of consumption behavior reveals that in addition to income factors,improving consumption willingness is also an important option to boost consumption.However,as a kind of subjective psychological behavior,whether consumption intention can lead to actual consumption behavior and consumption effect is still controversial.At the same time,the empirical research supports the consumption effect of many policy variables and policy indicators,and rarely verifies the actual effect of subjective factors such as residents'consumption willingness on consumption.As a new consumption form,tourism consumption has become one of the most typical consumption markets in the development of modern service industry in China.Among them,family tourism consumption accounts for 50%to 60%of all domestic tourism market.Therefore,this paper takes family tourism consumption as a representative consumption scenario to study and verify the actual consumption effect of consumption intention,so as to provide theoretical basis for China's economic recovery and consumption boost after the epidemic.Based on the data of“2016 China National Tourism Leisure survey”,this paper uses the measurement method of binary probit and OLS regression to explore the boosting effect of family travel willingness on tourism consumption.This study can not only reveal the actual consumption effect and mechanism of“family travel intention”,but also realize the large-scale and typical empirical test of consumption intention and consumption expenditure,and provide further evidence to clarify the relationship between consumption intention and consumption expenditure.The results show that family travel intention,as a typical endogenous pre guarantee,can effectively improve the probability of family tourism decision-making,enhance the excess consumption in future family tourism,and enhance the tourism consumption scale.This main conclusion is still valid after the robustness test and endogenous analysis.This is because,as a typical endogenous pre guarantee,family travel intention is a kind of long-term self-control consumption intention,which is conducive to the actual action after the decision-making.In addition,this effect is also positively regulated by family value belief,which also reveals that positive value belief is the boundary condition for family travel intention to produce actual tourism consumption effect.The main contribution of this paper is that through the large sample data of typical consumption scenarios,it is confirmed that consumption intention can bring real consumption effect,that is,“psychological behavior”can indeed produce actual economic effect,which makes up for the lack of research on the relationship between consumption intention and consumption expenditure.Based on the conclusion of the typical case of tourism consumption,this paper puts forward that the economic recovery and consumption promotion after the epidemic can not only boost consumption through the income side,but also effectively stimulate consumption by using the will side and the cultural side,including refining the consumption intention,optimizing the willingness attribute and giving full play to the guiding role of cultural values and beliefs on consumption intention.