中国物流业全要素生产率实证研究

Empirical Study on Total Factor Productivity of Logistics Industry in China

基于2003—2017年省际物流业面板数据,同时考虑能源投入和环境硬约束,以碳排放为非期望产出,利用SBM模型从静态视角测算和分析中国物流业发展效率和区域差异,并结合Malmquist指数模型,从动态视角分析物流效率的变化趋势和区域差异。研究发现:(1)2003—2017年,中国物流业发展效率总体较高,但区域差异明显;(2)2003—2017年,物流业的全要素生产率总体增长了1.3%,但在不同时期呈现出增长和下降相互交替的“Z型”波动趋势,Malmquist指数的上升主要得益于技术进步;(3)2003—2017年,八大区域的物流业全要素生产率,除长江中游和西北地区呈下降趋势外,其余六大区域都呈上升趋势,规模效率是导致区域差异的主要原因。根据中国物流业发展效率及其变化趋势,为进一步提升物流效率,需深化物流供给侧结构性改革,优化物流产业结构,提高物流技术水平,因地制宜出台物流政策。

Based on the panel data of China's provincial logistics industry from 2003 to 2017,considering energy input and environmental constraints,taking carbon emission as undesired output,this paper uses SBM model to calculate and analyze development efficiency and regional differences of China's logistics industry from a static perspective,and combines with the Malmquist index model to analyze the changing trend and regional differences of logistics efficiency from a dynamic perspective.The results show that:(1)From 2003 to 2017,the development efficiency of China's logistics industry was generally high,but regional differences were obvious.(2)From 2003 to 2017,the total factor productivity of the logistics industry increased by 1.3%on the whole,but showed a“Z-type”fluctuation trend of alternating growth and decline in different periods.The rise of the Malmquist index was mainly due to technological progress.(3)From 2003 to 2017,the total factor productivity of the logistics industry in the eight regions showed a downward trend,except for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and northwest China,the total factor productivity in the other six regions showed an upward trend,and scale efficiency was the main reason for the regional differences.To improve logistics efficiency,it is necessary to deepen the supply-side structural reform of logistics,optimize the structure of logistics industry,improve the level of logistics technology,and introduce logistics policies according to local conditions.