具有U型剂量响应化学物质累计风险评价方法研究——以饮用水氟为例

Study on the Cumulative Risk Assessment Method of Chemical Substances with U-Type Dose Response—Take Drinking Water Fluoride as Example

人体对氟元素有U型剂量响应作用,低氟与高氟都会对人体健康产生影响,而饮用水是人体氟摄入的重要来源之一。本文建立了水氟浓度-龋齿患病率剂量效应曲线以及水氟浓度-氟斑牙患病率剂量效应曲线,从龋齿及氟斑牙这2种高发的疾病导致的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)评价饮用水中氟元素浓度对人体健康的影响。结果表明,饮用水中氟元素浓度对人体影响呈U型曲线,对人体影响最低时的适宜浓度为0.75 mg·L-1,对应的人均伤残调整寿命年为1.60×10-6 DALYs per person-year(DALYs ppy)。我国重点城市自来水厂出水调查结果显示,平均氟浓度为0.287 mg·L-1,范围为0.005~0.870 mg·L-1。我国饮用水中氟元素对人体综合风险以伤残调整寿命年计约为1.80×10-6 DALYs ppy,说明我国饮用水中氟元素对人体的风险处于低水平。

Human toxic response to fluorine was U-type,where low and high level of fluorine can cause harmful effect to health.Drinking water is one of the important sources of fluorine intake.In this study,the dose-response curves between fluorine concentration to the prevalence of dental caries and fluorosis were developed,and the disability adjusted life years(DALYs)was applied to assess the effects of fluoride in drinking water on human health.The results showed that the health effect of fluoride in drinking water was U-type shape,where the corresponding concentration of the lowest effect on human was about 0.75 mg·L-1 with 1.60×10-6 DALYs per person-year(DALYs ppy).In addition,fluoride concentrations were surveyed in drinking water plants of major cities in China,of which the average was 0.287 mg·L-1 and range 0.005~0.870 mg·L-1.The health risk of fluoride in drinking water of major cities of China was about 1.80×10^-6 DALYs ppy,which was at a low risk level.