发达国家“制造业回归”的成效与启示——兼及与金砖国家的对照

Effects and Inspirations of the“Return of Manufacturing Industry”in Developed Countries:Plus Comparison with BRICS Countries

美欧推动“制造业回归”十年已过,短期内取得一定成效,但“成绩单”并不亮丽,并未改变“去工业化”的大势,美国制造业占国内生产总值(GDP)和就业之比、占世界制造业之比仍在持续下降。发达国家有两种发展模式:一种过于脱实向虚,产业空心化,制造业仅占10%左右,如美、英、法、加等国;另一种制造业地位高,占20%左右,如德、日、韩、新等国。在2008年国际金融危机中,后者的表现明显好于前者。制造业回归的核心聚焦于高新技术产业,抢占国际竞争制高点。我国制造业规模高居世界首位,但大而不强,存在占比回落偏快、工业化“未‘后’先‘去’”、国家“未富先虚”之忧。在全球新冠肺炎疫情大流行之际,我国产业外迁压力减轻,可能成为国际资本的避风港。我国宜抓住时机从战略上振兴制造业,争取工业化完成后制造业占比仍保持在20%以上,从制造大国迈向制造强国。

The United States and the European countries have promoted the“return of manufacturing industry”for over ten years,with some effects in a short term.However,the achievements are far from being brilliant.It does not change the trend of“de-industrialization.”In the US,the percentage of manufacturing industry in its GDP,employment and world manufacture keeps declining.There are two development models in developed countries:one shifts too much from real to virtual economy which brings about industrial“hollowing out”with merely 10%manufacturing industry in their economy.These countries include USA,UK,Canada and France etc.;the other has a higher percentage of manufacturing industry,around 20%.These countries are Germany,Japan,South Korea,and Singapore etc.During the international financial crisis in 2008,the latter countries obviously performed better than the former ones.The focus of the returning of manufacturing industry lies on the high and new technology industries to seize the commanding heights in international competition.Though being the world’s number one in terms of scale in manufacturing,China is still not a powerful manufacturing country because of the following defects:faster declining of manufacturing percentage,de-industrialization before post-industrialization,and becoming virtual before being prosperous.At the presence of a global pandemic,China faces less pressure for industries outflow and is likely to become a refuge for international capitals.Therefore,we should seize the opportunity to strategically revitalize the manufacturing industry,strive to keep a percentage over 20%after the completion of industrialization,and stride from a big manufacturing country to a powerful one.