新冠肺炎疫情对农业生产的微观影响——来自东部农业大省130个县域的样本例证

The Effect of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production from the Micro Point of View——A Sample from 130 Counties in an Eastern Agricultural Province of China

基于对中国东部某农业大省95%辖区130个县域675个包括家庭农场、合作社等五类新型农业经营主体的调研,从微观角度观察新冠肺炎疫情对农业生产的影响,可以看到,疫情对农业影响广度达80%,对农业产业化龙头企业、畜禽水产养殖业、果蔬业负面影响严重,而对粮食种植业的影响相对较小;人力匮乏、物流梗阻、生产成本上升和流动资金匮乏,导致疫期恢复农业生产困难。确立防疫常态下优先保障农业生产的思路、明确防疫标准、利用财政支持、就地解决农业劳动力、提供农业担保贷款,是保障农业稳定的路径。反思疫期暴露出的农业短板,建立应急状态下的农业保供和可持续发展机制,是农业稳定的长久之计。

To measure the impact of COVID-19 on China's agriculture from micro view by investigating 675 new types of agricultural businesses including family farms,cooperatives,large farming,agricultural industrialization leading enterprises,agricultural socialized service organizations,which scatter over more than 130 counties and cover 95% county territory of one outstanding agricultural province in east China,It is found that the outbreak has affected at least 80% of members of the agriculture operator.The outbreak has a serious negative impact on leading enterprises of agricultural industrialization,livestock and poultry aquaculture,fruit and vegetable industry,but a relatively small impact on the grain planting industry.Lack of manpower,logistics obstruction,rising production costs and lack of liquidity make the agriculture recovery more difficult during the epidemic period.It may be the way to restore agricultural production quickly by establishing a mechanism giving priority to agriculture in the context of epidemic prevention,setting clear epidemic prevention standards,using financial tools actively to help obtaining agricultural labor force local,providing working fund through agriculture loan guarantees.In fact it is a permanent solution for this problem to introspect the problems which are exposed in an epidemic period and establishing a sustainable mechanism of agricultural products supplying under emergency conditions.