中国对外贸易政策变迁研究——基于2001-2019年的文本计量分析

Changes in China's Foreign Trade Policies:Based on Text Metrics from 2001 to 2019

文章以2001—2019年国务院和国家商务部颁布的共319项外贸政策为样本,首先从政策数量和政策工具这两个维度进行分析,将外贸政策工具分为管制型、鼓励型和保护型;其次采用自编软件根据主题词词频变化进行文本计量分析,得出我国在对外贸易发展不同阶段外贸政策的不同特点;研究结果表明:2001—2019年对外贸易政策的变迁规律表现为外贸政策聚焦点实现向高技术含量高附加值转变、向质量效益型转变、向实现贸易平衡转变;对外贸易政策变迁的过程是对外贸易体制机制改革发展的过程;对外贸易政策保障措施越来越完善。

The sample in this paper is a total of 319 foreign trade policies issued by the State Council and the Ministry of Commerce from 2001 to 2019.First of all,from the two dimensions of policy quantity and policy tools,the foreign trade policy tools are divided into control,encouragement and protection.Then,a text econometric analysis is carried out by using the self⁃programmed software according to the frequency change of subject words,and the different characteristics of China's foreign trade policies in different stages of foreign trade development are obtained.The results show that the changes of foreign trade policy from 2001 to 2019 are as follows:the focus of foreign trade policy shifted to high technology content and high added value,to quality and benefit,and to trade balance;the process of foreign trade policy changes was the process of foreign trade system re⁃form and development;foreign trade policy safeguard measures were getting close to perfection.