商贸流通业发展与区域消费市场规模——基于双重门槛模型的实证分析

The Development of Commercial Circulation Industry and the Scale of Regional Consumption Market:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Double Threshold Model

受制于区域经济发展的不平衡,我国不同区域市场消费间差异不断拉大,不同商贸流通主体与区域消费市场的非线性关系愈发明显。针对商贸流通主体与区域消费市场间的非线性关系,文章根据区域间经济基础的不同确定了三个主体区间,采用Hansen的双重门槛模型对商贸流通主体的门槛效应进行检测。研究结果表明:区域消费市场规模的扩张不仅受到商贸流通产业的促进,在很大程度上还受到经济实体水平的制约。在经济水平相对较高和较低的区域中,商贸流通发展的消费市场促进效应具有较高的显著性,这是由于高经济水平区域的经济实体能够有效助力商贸流通业的发展成果向市场的推进,低经济水平区域的经济实体迫切需要商贸流通业对市场的梳理和联通作用。但在经济适中的区域中,由于产业、市场和经济的相互不适应,导致商贸流通业发展的作用难以被社会共享。

constrained by the imbalance of regional economic development,the gap between China's regional market consumption is widening,and the non-linear relationship between different trading entities and regional consumption market is becoming more and more obvious.In view of the non-linear relationship between the main body of trade circulation and the regional consumption market,this paper determines three main body intervals according to the different economic basis between regions,and adopts Hansen's double threshold model to test the threshold effect of the main body of trade circulation.The research results show that the area consumer market expansion to promote,not only by the commerce and trade circulation industry has largely restricted by economic entities,the economic level is relatively high and low area,business trade circulation development of the consumer market have significant promoting effect,this is due to the high economic level of regional economic entity can effectively boost commerce development achievements to the advancement of the market and low economic level of regional economic entity to comb and unicom in desperate need of commerce for the market.However,in the region with moderate economy,due to the mutual inadaptability of industry,market and economy,it is difficult for the development of commercial circulation industry to be Shared by the society.