近代以来三次历史大变局与中华文明的衰而复振

Three Historical Changes in Modern Times and the Decline and Revival of Chinese Civilization

近代以来,中国社会发生了被人们称之为百年变局、千古变局的深刻变革,其中包括晚清大变局、民初大变局与目前正在经历的“百年未有之大变局”。经过三次大变局,世界格局、国际地位、外部挑战发生深刻变化:从“一统垂棠”的天下秩序演变而成“列国并立”的世界秩序,演变而成第二次世界大战后的两极体制;世界霸主由“晚清大变局”发生时的英国,到二战后成为“世界领袖”的美国,再到当下的“百年未有之大变局”中的国际秩序重塑;国际关系重心则从“大航海时代”到晚清时争霸全球海洋,到民国以来以大西洋为中心,再到目前太平洋一带成为重点地区。在“晚清大变局”中,中国从“天朝大国”沦落为备受列强欺凌的贫国弱国;在“民初大变局”中,中国成为一战的战胜国,但由于国力衰弱,战败国德国在华权益被《巴黎和约》转让给了日本,又经从1931年到1945年的长期抗日,中国国际地位得到提升;经过长期努力,在当下“百年未有之大变局”中,我国日益走近世界舞台中央。中国所面临外部挑战亦有很大变化:在“晚清大变局”中,中国农耕文明遭遇的是更为先进的西方工业文明,且同时遭到多个帝国主义国家的入侵,面对的是数千年来未有之强敌。近代先驱者主张顺应时代大势,变易以通古今;适应世界潮流,开放以通中外;因应全新挑战,转型以通新旧。近代以来,中国发展道路经历了从仿行西法到“走俄国人的路”、再到“走自己的路”的三次转型。三次大变局见证了中华民族、中华文明从走向衰落到重拾自信、再到走向伟大复兴的历史进程。

In modern times, profound changes have taken place, which are called centennial or even millennial changes,including the major change in the late Qing Dynasty, the major change in the early Republic of China and the"unprecedented centennial change we are currently experiencing. Through these three major changes, the world situation,China’s international status and external challenges have also undergone profound changes: the world order has broken away from each-country-minding-its-own-business mode, to the nations-standing-side-by-side mode, and then to the bipolar system after World War Ⅱ. The world hegemon has changed from the UK during the major change in the late Qing Dynasty, to the United States, the "world leader" after World War Ⅱ, and then to the current reshaping of international order in the unprecedented centennial change right now. The focus of international relations has changed from geographical discovery to the pursuit of hegemony in global oceans in the late Qing Dynasty, to the Atlantic Ocean as the center since the Republic of China, and to the now Pacific Ocean as the key area. In the major change in the late Qing Dynasty, China fell from a great power to a poor and weak country bullied by big powers. In the major change in the early Republic of China, China became a victorious country in World War I. However, due to the lack of national strength,interests of defeated Germany in China were transferred to Japan by the Paris Peace Treaty. After the long anti-Japanese war from 1931 to 1945, China’s international status was improved. After long-term efforts, China is increasingly approaching the center of the world stage in the current centennial change. Change of China’s external challenges: in the major change in the late Qing Dynasty, China’s farming civilization encountered a more advanced Western industrial civilization, and was invaded by many imperialist countries at the same time, facing strong enemies not seen for thousands of years. Modern pioneers advocate adapting to the general trend of the times and making changes to communicate between the past and the present, adapting to the world trend and open up to communicate with foreign countries, and transforming to connect the old with the new to address new challenges. In modern times, China’s development path has also undergone three transformations: from imitating Western principles to "taking the Russian road", and then to "taking China’s own road". The three major changes have witnessed the historical process of the Chinese nation and civilization regaining self-confidence from its declining past, and then stepping towards its great rejuvenation.