峰值背景下中国经济增长与能源碳排放关系分析

On Relationship of Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in China based on Peak Emission

能源消费、碳排放与经济增长存在复杂的系统关联。为了认识中国能源消费和碳排放变化的关联因素。本研究基于脱钩系数,Kaya模型和因素分解模型,通过1995~2017年中国能源、碳排放和经济发展趋势,划分阶段并归纳阶段脱钩特征,建立了碳排放与能源强度、能源结构等影响因素关系式,以LMDI模型进行加法无残差分解。结果显示,中国目前经济发展、能源消费和碳排放有很强的阶段性特征,2005年后经济发展与能源和碳排放关系出现弱脱钩。中国经济增长依然对能源消费需求扩大和碳排放增加产生最主要驱动作用,具有一定的刚性需求。短期内提高能源利用效率依然是降低资源消耗,减少碳排放的主要途径,从长远来看要实现峰值目标,依靠可再生能源和新能源,加快能源消费结构调整和开发是必然的选择。

Energy consumption,carbon dioxide emission,and economic growth exist complex connections.To understand the factors related to variations in China's energy consumption and carbon emissions,this study is carried out based on a combined method of decoupling coefficients,Kaya models,and IDA models.By the trend analysis of China's energy,carbon emissions,and economic development from 1995 to 2017,we determined the stages and their decoupling indexes,and discover the relationship between carbon emissions and energy intensity,energy structure and other influencing factors in using the LMDI additive model without residual decomposition.The results showed that China's current economic development,energy consumption,and carbon emissions showed strong stage characteristics.The relationship between economic development and energy and carbon emissions has been weakly decoupled since 2005.China's economic growth still has the most important driving impact on expanding demand for energy consumption and increasing carbon emissions,with a certain rigid demand.Improving energy use efficiency in the short term is still the primary approach to reduce resource consumption and carbon emissions.In the long run,it is necessary to depend on renewable and clean energy sources,to accelerate the adjustment of the energy structure for peak targets.