基于等维新息灰色马尔科夫的地铁客流量预测

Prediction of subway passenger flow based on equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model

为准确预测地铁客流量的发展趋势,采用等维新息灰色GM(1,1)预测模型与马尔科夫模型相结合的方式建立等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型,探讨等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型在地铁客流量预测领域的应用;运用平均相对误差、后验差比值和小误差概率3种指标对模型精度进行检验。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高,预测精度等级为Ⅰ级(优),优于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和等维新息灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,更加符合地铁客流的实际情况。

In order to accurately predict the development trend of subway passenger flow,an equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model was established by combining the equal dimension and new information grey GM(1,1)prediction model with Markov model,and the application of equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model in the field of subway passenger flow prediction was discussed.The accuracy of the model was tested by means of average relative error,posterior difference ratio and small error probability.The results showed that the equal dimension and new information grey-Markov model had higher fitting degree with the original data sequence,and the prediction accuracy level wasⅠ“optimal”,which was better than those of traditional grey GM(1,1)model and equal dimension and new information grey GM(1,1)model,so it was more in line with the actual situation of subway passenger flow.