配电网网格化规划中空间负荷预测方法研究

Research on Spatial Load Forecasting Method in Distribution Network Grid Planning

根据配电网网格化规划的要求,在电网规划供电单元、供电网格、供电区域划分的基础上,自下而上给出了3个层级的空间负荷预测方法。在供电单元层级,针对负荷密度法过程中负荷密度指标的选取,提出用S型曲线模型来确定过渡年负荷密度指标的方法,并给出了供电单元内同时率的计算方法,以此来确定供电单元负荷;对于供电网格层级,考虑供电单元间的同时率,给出了供电网格的负荷预测方法;由于供电网格为面积较大的综合型区域,它们之间的同时率接近于1,因此供电区域负荷为供电网格负荷直接相加。各个层级的负荷预测方法较传统的总量负荷预测更为精细化,为网格化规划中的高中压电网规划奠定了基础。

According to the grid planning requirements of the distribution network,the load forecasting methods in the power supply unit,the power supply grid and the power supply area were presented.At the level of power supply unit,aiming at the selection of the transition year load density index in the process of the load density method,an S-curve model was proposed,and the calculation method of the load simultaneity factor in the power supply unit was given to determine power supply unit load.At the power supply grid level,considering the load simultaneity factor between power supply units,a load forecasting method for the power supply grid was given.Since the power supply grid was a comprehensive area in a large area,and the load simultaneity factor among them was close to 1,the load of the power grid could be directly added to get the power supply grid load.The load forecasting method at each level was more refined than the traditional total load forecasting method,which laid a solid foundation for the grid planning of high and middle voltage networks.