摘要
传统配电网投资安全风险评估模型都是通过简化模型、历史数据与静态技术对配电网投资安全风险评估模型进行设计,忽略了动态配电网投资的研究.该文设计了一种新的配电网投资安全风险评估模型,该模型把条件风险价值应用于配电网投资安全风险评估中,对配电网投资全局和局部调整策略进行多次比较和更新,实现配电网投资安全风险可能性的度量.通过设备全生命周期费用LCC度量配电网投资收益损失,为安全风险可能性度量提供依据.依据风险定义,通过配电网投资评估方法,对配电网投资风险出现的可能性和风险产生的后果进行量化处理,将配电网投资安全风险等级划分成一般风险、中等风险与重大风险.依据风险等级确定过程,通过风险评估矩阵评估配电网投资风险.实验结果表明,所设计模型评估精度高,满足应用条件.
Traditional distribution network investment security risk assessment model is designed through simplified model,historical data and static technology,ignoring the research of dynamic distribution network investment.A new distribution network investment security risk assessment model is designed,which applies conditional value at risk to distribution network investment security risk assessment,compares and updates the global and local adjustment strategies of distribution network investment for many times,and realizes the measurement of distribution network investment security risk possibility.The loss of investment income of distribution network is measured by LCC of equipment life cycle cost,which provides a basis for measuring the possibility of safety risk.According to the definition of risk,the probability and consequences of distribution network investment risk are quantified by the distribution network investment evaluation method,and the distribution network investment security risk level is divided into general risk,medium risk and major risk.According to the risk grade determination process,the investment risk of distribution network is evaluated through the risk evaluation matrix.Experimental results show that the designed model has high evaluation accuracy and meets the application conditions.
作者
郭飞
张庆平
王亮
史渊源
万鹏
贾璐
马国武
何平
GUO Fei;ZHANG Qing-ping;WANG Liang;SHI Yuan-yuan;WAN Peng;JIA Lu;MA Guo-wu;HE Ping(State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001;State Grid Ningdong Power Supply Company, Yinchuan 750000;Ningxia ICT Network Technology Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001;School of Information Engineering, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021 China)
出处
《湘潭大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
2020年第5期98-105,共8页
Journal of Xiangtan University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2018YFB0904503)
国网宁夏电力有限公司科技资助项目(JA29DK20010)。
关键词
配电网
投资
风险评估
模型
distribution network
investment
risk assessment
model