基于供应侧和需求侧变化下的能源系统情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Energy System Based on Supply Side and Demand Side Changes

典型省份的能源转型研究,需进一步体现区域发展特色,切实解决地区深度减排的实际问题.提出一种基于供应侧和需求侧变化下的能源系统情景设置,分析广东省对能源的实际供需,详细构建供应侧和需求侧的综合节能情景,深入研究CCUS机组的发展极限、超低排放机组的极限、碳排放和常规大气污染物约束下可行的能源供应路径等问题,对供应侧和需求侧变化下的能源系统情景进行分析.结果表明:基于供应侧和需求侧变化下的能源系统情景分析,可为广东省提供具体的能源系统优化策略,以及在需求侧和供应侧层面上实现技术可行、成本最优、满足政策目标的能源转型路径,也为政策制定提供了更丰富的视角.

The research on energy transformation of typical provinces needs to further reflect the characteristics of regional development and effectively solve the practical problems of regional deep emission reduction.This paper proposes an energy system scenario setting based on the change of supply side and demand side,analyzes the actual supply and demand of energy in Guangdong Province,constructs the comprehensive energy saving scenario of supply side and demand side in detail,deeply studies the development limit of CCUs units,the limit of ultra-low emission units,the feasible energy supply path under the constraints of carbon emissions and conventional air pollutants,and carries out the supply side and demand side analysis Scenario analysis of energy system under the change of demand side.The results show that:the scenario analysis of energy system based on the change of supply side and demand side can provide Guangdong Province with energy system optimization strategy,as well as the energy transformation path to achieve technically feasible,cost optimal and meet policy objectives at the level of demand side and supply side,and also provide a richer perspective for policy formulation.