西辽河流域降水特征分析与干旱预测研究——以通辽市科尔沁区为例

Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Drought Prediction in West Liaohe River Basin——Taking Horchin District of Tongliao City as an Example

为准确预测我国北方半干旱农牧交错生态脆弱带地区未来年份生育期降水量,为西辽河流域玉米浅埋滴灌灌溉决策提供参考,利用通辽市1960—2020年降水量资料,采用趋势分析法分析了通辽市61年的降水年际、年内变化特征,基于马尔可夫模型对通辽市科尔沁区作物生育期5—9月进行干旱预测.科尔沁区61年平均降水量为376.98 mm,年降水量总体呈下降趋势;年内降水量主要集中在夏季,占全年降水总量的69.89%,降水量范围在38.73~155.03 mm之间;预测未来2年(2021,2022年)5—9月的降水量分别为193.24~313.42 mm和232.90~334.42 mm.基于马尔可夫模型的月降水量预测有较好的预测效果,可以为西辽河流域降水丰枯状况预报和生育期降水量进行预测.

A study was conducted in an attempt to at accurately predict the precipitation in the growth period of the future years in the semi-arid ecotone of agriculture and animal husbandry in northern China,and provide a reference for the decision-making of shallow buried drip irrigation for Maize in the West Liaohe River Basin.Based on the precipitation data of Tongliao City from 1960 to 2020,the inter annual and intra annual variation characteristics of precipitation were analyzed by trend analysis method.Based on Markov model,drought forecast of crop growth period from May to September in Horchin district of Tongliao City was carried out.The average precipitation of Horchin district in 61 years was 376.98 mm,and the annual precipitation showed a downward trend.The annual precipitation was mainly concentrated in the summer,accounting for 69.89%of the total annu⁃al precipitation and ranged from 38.73 mm to 155.03 mm.It is predicted that the precipitation from May to September in the next two years(2021 and 2022)will be 193.24~313.42 mm and 232.9~334.42 mm.The monthly precipitation forecast based on Markov model has a good prediction effect and it can be used to forecast the pre⁃cipitation in the West Liaohe River Basin and the precipitation in the growth period.