燕山北部农牧交错区土地利用变化分析与模拟

Analysis and simulation of land use change in farming and pastoral areas of northern Yan Mountain

通过研究燕山北部农牧交错区土地利用类型的演变规律并预测未来的变化趋势,为土地资源的合理利用提供依据。研究旨在使用遥感和GIS作为信息获取和分析工具,以承德围场县为例,通过解译2009,2014以及2019年的研究区Landsat 8遥感影像,在此基础上分析不同年份间隔土地利用类型的变化规律,并运用CA-Markov模型来模拟2024年研究区土地利用类型的变化并进行深入的探讨。结果表明:不同土地利用类型转换之间存在明显的区域性差异,土地利用类型呈现出“三增三减”的变化趋势;林地分布广泛,有着较高的占比,但随着年份的增长,林地增长速度减慢,紧随其后的是耕地和草地;城市的规模逐步扩大,人口数量出现了增加,畜牧养殖业也进一步扩大,不合理的土地利用方式长期以来一直受到人类农业生产活动的影响,从而未得到有效利用的土地在一定程度上呈现增长趋势。因此,科学合理地分析土地利用演变特征,探究未来土地利用变化趋势,平衡生态环境保护和人类用地之间的关系及经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。

The study aimed to provide the basis for the rational utilization of land resources by studying the evolution law of land use types in the agro-pastoral zone in the north of Yan Mountain and predicting the change trend in the future.With the remote sensing and GIS as the access tools to information and analysis,Weichang County in Chengde City was taken as an example to analyze the change rule of land use types during different year intervals through the interpretation of 2009,2014 and 2019 Landsat 8 remote sensing images in the study area,and CA-Markov model was used to simulate the change of land use types in the study area in 2024.The results showed that there were obvious regional differences among different land use types,and land use types showed a change trend of“increase in three land types and decrease in the other three land types”.Woodland were widely distributed with high proportion,but as the increase of the year,forest growth had slowed down,followed by the cultivated land and grassland.With the expanded scale of cities and the increase of population,animal husbandry and aquaculture also further expanded,and unreasonable land utilization had long been influenced by human activities of agricultural production,thus the land without being effectively utilized showed an increasing trend to a certain extent.Therefore,it is of great significance to scientifically and rationally analyze the evolution characteristics of land use,explore the change trend of land use in the future,balance the relationship between ecological environment protection and human land use,and achieve sustainable economic development.