后金融危机与新冠疫情双重影响下中国加工贸易国内竞争、区域转移和腾笼换鸟研究

Domestic Competition,Regional Transfer and Bidirectional Shift of Processing Trade in China under the Dual Influence of the Post International Financial Crisis and COVID-19

在国际金融危机背景下,中国加工贸易面对的国内竞争主要集中在两个层面,一方面是来自国内一般贸易的竞争,另一方面是省际和区域之间的竞争。受国际金融危机的影响,贸易保护主义在全球复兴,全球经济复苏乏力,加工贸易在中国货物贸易中份额近十年来出现了较大幅度的下降。而新冠疫情引起的世界经济衰退则进一步恶化了中国加工贸易转型升级与区域转移的国际政治经济环境。另一方面,中国加工贸易国内竞争加剧,加快了区域转移和区域承接的步伐。近十年来加工贸易发展的省际泰尔指数和基尼系数的不断下降,也从另一个角度验证了中国加工贸易发展的区域差距在缩小,区域转移和承接的进程也正是逐步实现区域收敛的进程。

Against the backdrop of the international financial crisis,the processing trade in China is mainly facing two aspects of competition at home:the competition from the general trade and the competition from other provinces and regions.Due to the impact of the global financial crisis,the rise of the trade protectionism and sluggish recovery of the global economy,the processing trade has had a huge decline in the share of the trade in goods in China over the past decade.The world economic recession caused by Covid-19 has further exacerbated the international political and economic environment of China’s processing trade transformation and upgrading and regional transfer.Furthermore,confronted with the increasingly fierce competition at home,the processing trade is undergoing faster regional transfer.In the past decade,the Theil index and Gini index of processing trade across provinces are diminishing constantly,which corroborates the fact from another perspective that the gap of the processing trade among different regions is shortening.The process of regional transfer is the very process of regional convergence.