全球2℃温升碳约束下中国煤电搁浅资产研究

China’s coal power sector stranded assets under the 2℃global carbon constraint

作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题。研究运用“上下交互”的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下(无新增、新增200、300和400 GW)的搁浅煤电机组。首先,从“自上而下”角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额。然后,从“自下而上”角度,根据高精度的燃煤电站信息核算煤电累积CO2排放量。最后基于“上下交互”模式筛选出搁浅燃煤电站,在此基础上运用现金流量法估算其潜在的搁浅价值,并对其关键因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明,在无新增情景下,煤电搁浅资产规模约为0.38万亿元;若继续增加200~400 GW煤电装机,则搁浅价值将较无新增情景增加3.7~8.2倍。因此,建议“十四五”期间应树立煤电规模峰值意识,严控煤电新增产能,避免错过最佳减排时机。

As the largest coal power provider in the world,China needs to give more consideration to assess the stranded coal-fired assets,which caused by meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals of capping global warming rise to 2℃by the end of the 21st century.With an integrated carbon lock-in curves(CLICs)approach,China’s stranded coal power assets were identified under different coal power capacity expansion scenarios(no additional,200,300 and 400 GW new coal power units).From a“top-down”perspective,the carbon emission allowances were estimated for China’s coal power sector under 2℃climate target.From a“bottom-up”perspective,the cumulative carbon emissions of coal power units were calculated,based on the high-precision data of coal power unit in China.Then“interaction up and down”to screen out stranded coal power units.Stranded value of coal power was estimated based upon a cash flow algorithm,with sensitivity analysis on key factors.The counterintuitive finding is,if stabilizing coal power capacity during 2020-2030,China will only incur a sizeable yet acceptable stranded loss around CNY 382 billion,however,continued increase of another 200-400 GW coal power would significantly enlarge the loss to 3.7-8.2 times.Therefore,during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan period,in order to avoid missing the best time to reduce CO2 emissions,it is necessary to establish peak coal power capacity and strictly control new coal power plant.