云南省人口与经济空间格局演变分析

An Analysis of the Evolution of the Spatial Pattern of Population and Economy in Yunnan Province

本文以2010-2019年云南省的人口与国民生产总值为数据基础,以16个州市为研究对象,运用人口—经济增长弹性、标准差椭圆法、全局空间自相关模型等方法对云南省人口与经济的增长协调关系、时空演变、空间分布方向性及空间相关性进行分析.结果表明(1)人口-经济弹性指数为0.04,经济每增长1%,人口增长0.04%,经济增长对人口规模的拉动作用较弱;(2)人口与经济集聚相对协调的地区占总量的62.5%,空间分布的不一致性情况有所改善;(3)人口空间变化不大,重心略向东北方向移动,经济空间集聚有所弱化,重心向西南方向移动;(4)Moran's I值较低,空间关联性较小,多数城市呈现高-高(H-H)和低-低(L-L)分布,实现区域人口经济协调发展仍任重道远.

Based on the population and GDP data of Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2019,and 16 prefectures as the research object,using population-economic elasticity,standard deviation ellipse method,global spatial autocorrelation model and other methods to analyze Yunnan Analysis of the coordinated relationship,temporal and spatial evolution,spatial distribution direction and spatial correlation between the province's population and economic growth.The results show that:(1)The population-economic growth elasticity index is 0.04.For every 1%economic growth,the population grows by 0.04%.Economic growth has a weaker effect on the population size;(2)The population and economic agglomeration are relatively coordinated in the total area.62.5%of the population,the inconsistency of spatial distribution has improved;(3)The population space has not changed much,the center of gravity has moved slightly to the northeast,the economic spatial agglomeration has weakened,and the center of gravity has moved to the southwest;(4)Moran's I value is relatively Low and low spatial relevance.Most cities present a high-high(H-H)and low-low(L-L)distribution.There is still a long way to go to achieve coordinated development of regional population and economy.