基于脱钩模型的湖北省乡村人—耕—居变化关联模式分析

Analysis on Spatiotemporal Correlation Modes of Rural Population,Cultivated Land and Rural Settlements in Hubei Province Based on Decoupling Model

乡村人口、耕地和居民点(人—耕—居)是农村社会经济发展的核心要素,其变化反映了农村特定时期的人地关系。该文综合运用热点分析和脱钩模型,探讨2009-2017年湖北省县域乡村人—耕—居动态演化特征和时空关联模式,揭示乡村人—耕—居发展的内在关系与规律。结果表明:1)湖北省乡村人—耕—居整体以“人减耕减居增”变化为主,空间上未呈现典型的高低值集聚特征,但武汉市及其周边区域是人口和居民点变化的冷热点集聚区。2)强复钩和衰退复钩分别是湖北省乡村人口与居民点变化及人口与耕地变化的最主要类型,农村居民点粗放利用趋势明显,城镇发展与耕地保护的矛盾依然突出。3)湖北省县域乡村人—耕—居变化共有7种时空关联模式,不同类型分布体现了城镇化和社会经济发展的地域分异性,人—居强复钩与人—耕衰退复钩组合是最主要类型,湖北省县域多数乡村发展尚处于快速城镇化的自然衰退期。研究成果有助于深入理解快速城镇化期乡村人地关系,能够为乡村振兴分类、分标准施策提供借鉴。

Rural population,cultivated land and rural settlements are key elements of rural socioeconomic development,which reflect the special human-land relationship in rural areas.Based on hotspot analysis and decoupling model,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal change features and correlation modes of rural population,cultivated land and rural settlements at the county level in Hubei Province during 2009 to 2017.The inner relationships and law of the changes of rural population,cultivated land and rural settlements are explored.The results are as follows.1)The rural settlement gain coexists with rural population loss and cultivated land decrease in the majority of counties in Hubei Province.Although there is no significant cluster feature of high or low values,the cold and hot spots of the changes of rural population and settlements are observed in Wuhan and its surrounding areas.2)Strong hook and recession hook are the primary types for rural population-settlement change and rural population-cul-tivated land change,respectively.There is a trend of low efficiency use of rural settlements and the contradiction between urban development and cultivated land conservation is salient.3)There are seven combination types of changes of rural population,cultivated land and rural settlements,which reflect the regional differences of urbanization and socioeconomic development.Strong hook of rural population and rural settlements combining with recession hook of rural population and cultivated land is the most important phenomenon in Hubei Province,which indicates that the majority of rural areas are in a period of natural decline during the process of rapid urbanization.This study will contribute to understanding the human-land relationship in rural.areas,where are undergoing a rapid urbanization.We believe that the results will provide important information for rural revital-ization by formulating differentiation policies.