“一带一路”倡议下中国与重要节点地区的贸易格局及影响因素--以外高加索国家为例

Trade Pattern and Its Influencing F actors between China and Important Node Regions under"the Belt and Road"Initiative:A Case Study of Transcaucasia Countries

外高加索国家地处欧亚十字路口,是古丝绸之路上的重要国家,也是“一带一路”的核心节点,区位战略意义重大。该文分析了外高加索三国自1991年独立以来中国与其贸易发展历程,借助HM指数和贸易互补性指数,从贸易总体格局和贸易商品特征两个角度分析双向贸易关系,并探究了影响其贸易发展的因素。结果表明:1)中国与外高加索三国长期保持贸易往来,贸易总额呈波动攀升趋势,阶段性特征明显;贸易差额起伏变化,整体长期维持贸易顺差状态;外高加索三国对中国的贸易依赖性显著大于中国对其依赖性。2)中国对外高加索三国出口商品互补性显著高于进口互补性,说明与作为中国进口商品来源国相比,外高加索三国作为中国商品的消费市场更具优势;中国对外高加索三国出口商品类型较为相似,结构呈集中与多元并存态势,主要出口商品逐步由资源、劳动密集型的低附加值商品向技术密集型等高附加值商品转变,而中国自外高加索三国进口的商品类型虽有所扩展,但主要类型仍较为单一,高度集中于未加工或半加工类资源型商品。3)地理距离、政局稳定性、产业结构、地缘关系、贸易环境及便利性是影响中国与外高加索三国贸易发展的主要因素。

Transcaucasia countries are important countries on the ancient Silk Road which are located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.They are also the core nodes of "the Belt and Road",and their strategic position is very important.This paper systematically analyzes the development history of trade between China and the three Transcaucasia countries since their independence in 1991.With the help of HM method and trade complementarity index,the paper studies the contacts trade relationship between China and the three Transcaucasia countries from the perspectives of the overall trade patterns and trade commodity characteristics,and explores the factors that affected the trade development.The result shows that:1)Since the independence of the three Transcaucasia countries in 1991,China has maintained long-term trade relations with them.Total trade volume has risen volatility with obvious phased characteristics,trade balance has fluctuated and the overall trade surplus has been maintained for a long time,trade dependence of the three countries on China has been significantly greater than that of China depends on them.2) The complementarity of China′s exports to the three Transcaucasia countries is significantly higher than the complementarity of China′s imports from the three Transcaucasia countries.This shows that the three Transcaucasia countries have more advantages as a consumer market for Chinese goods than as a source country for Chinese imports.The types of commodities exported by China to the three Transcaucasia countries are relatively similar,commodities structure presents a coexisting state of concentration and pluralism.The main export commodities are gradually changing from low-value-added resources and labor-intensive type to high-value-added technology-intensive type.Although the types of commodities imported from the three countries have expanded,the main types are still relatively unitary,highly concentrated in low-value-added unprocessed or semi-processed resource-based commodities.3) Geographic distance,political stability,industrial structure,geographical relationship,trade environment and convenience are the main factors that affect the trade development between China and the three Transcaucasia countries.