基于Markov-Elman神经网络的消费者信心指数预测模型构建

Forecast Model Construction of Consumer Confidence Index based on Markov and Elman Neural Network

以2007年1月至2018年9月我国消费者信心指数的月度数据为样本,分别构建马尔科夫链和elman神经网络,拟合并预测消费者信心指数的未来走势。结果表明:马尔科夫链和elman神经网络的预测效果良好、模型预测精度高、误差小,且两种方法的预测结果一致,为消费者信心指数及同类指数的预测提供一种新的思路和方法。

The monthly data from January 2007 to September 2018 was chosen as sample,the Markov chain and Elman neural network model to fitting and forecast the future trend.The results indicate that the Markov chain and the Elman neural network present good forecast effect,high precision and little error,and both the two methods have consistent result.The results provide a new thinking and method to forecast CCI and other similar index.