后工业化时期典型发达国家及地区初等教育学龄人口变化轨迹与应对策略——基于教育的中介效应分析

Change Trajectory and Coping Strategies of Primary School Age Population in Typical Developed Countries and Regions in Post-industrial Period——Basing on Educational Mediating Effect Analysis

后工业化时期,在绝大多数发达国家或地区的女性高中毛入学率达到70-80%以上的时候,其人口生育率悄悄地跌破更替水平,从而引发小学学龄人口波浪式下跌。欧盟国家小学生数量整体下滑趋势较为明显;亚洲的日本、韩国和中国的香港、台湾地区等地小学生数量下跌的幅度高于欧盟国家;教育作为影响生育率下跌的中介因素,教育年限的延长、终身化的学习方式以及育儿成本的提升等对生育率下跌产生了间接的影响。发达国家为了缓解小学生数量规模的下滑,通常采取两大应对策略:提升生育率和引进移民,但是前者的效果不甚理想。中国大陆目前的少子化倾向非常严重,为了配合人口政策调整的趋势,反思后工业社会高中及高中后教育普及的负面效应,应及早认识到学龄人口下跌的严峻现实并做好应对策略,让教育改革适时配合人口政策做出调整。

In the post-industrial period,when the gross enrollment rate of female high school students in most developed countries or regions reached 70-80%,the fertility rate of female high school students quietly dropped below the replacement level,triggering a wave decline in the primary school-age population.The overall decline trend of primary school students in EU countries is more obvious;In Asia,Japan,South Korea and China's Hong Kong and Taiwan regions,the declines were steeper than in the European Union.Education,as an intermediary factor,has an indirect effect on the decline of fertility.In rich countries,two strategies have been used to slow the decline in the number of pupils,raising fertility and importing immigrants.The current tendency of the Chinese mainland to have fewer children is very serious.In order to adapt to the trend of population policy adjustment,we should reflect on the negative effects of high school and post-high school education popularization in post-industrial society,realize the grim reality of the decline of school-age population as early as possible,and make corresponding strategies.