传统工业型城市综合生态承载力评价——以株洲市为例

Assessment of Comprehensive Ecological Carrying Capacity of Traditional Industrial Cities:a Case Study of Zhuzhou City

从城市生态系统支撑力、社会经济协调力、人类活动压力3个方面构建了城市综合生态承载力评价指标体系,并运用组合赋权法和状态空间法相结合的手段,以株洲市为基本评估单元,对该市2007—2018年城市综合生态承载力进行评估,探究了影响区域综合生态承载力的关键因素。结果表明:株洲市综合生态承载力总体呈现小幅度波动上升的发展态势,2007—2010年株洲市综合生态承载力处于超载状态,2011年基本处于平衡状态,2012年后处于可载状态;经济增长和人口压力的贡献度波动下降,资源消耗和环境污染波动上升,地物覆被、资源供给先上升后下降,环境治理、生活质量、技术进步及经济发展整体呈上升趋势,2011年后环境治理对城市综合生态承载力的贡献居主导地位,人口压力和经济增长对城市生态系统的压力大于资源消耗和环境污染;环境治理、技术进步、经济发展、环境污染、资源消耗将成为制约株洲市综合生态承载力的关键因素。

An evaluation index system of urban comprehensive ecological carrying capacity has been constructed from such three aspects as urban ecosystem supporting capacity,social and economic coordination capacity and human activity pressure;by adopting the combination weighting method and state space method,and with Zhuzhou City as the basic evaluation unit to evaluate the urban comprehensive ecological carrying capacity from 2007 to 2018,an inquiry has been made into the key factors affecting the regional comprehensive ecological carrying capacity.The results show that the overall comprehensive ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City shows a slight fluctuation rising trend;from 2007 to 2010,the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City is in an overloaded state,basically in a balanced state in 2011,while in a loadable state after 2012.The contribution of economic growth and population pressure fluctuated,resource consumption and environmental pollution fluctuated,land cover and resource supply experience an initial increase and a subsequent decrease,meanwhile the environmental governance,quality of life,technological progress and economic development show an overall upward trend.After 2011,the contribution of environmental governance to urban comprehensive ecological carrying capacity keeps dominant,with the pressure of population and economic growth on urban ecosystem greater than resource consumption and environmental pollution.Environmental governance,technological progress,economic development,environmental pollution and resource consumption will become the key factors to be restricting the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City.