我国对外移民的现状及其影响因素研究

Study on the Status Quo of Emigration from China and the Factors Influencing It

国际移民现象已成为国际化的重要表现。2013年,全球有2.32亿人移民海外,受到国际社会的广泛关注。我国于2016年6月成为国际移民组织的成员国。2016年9月,国际移民组织正式加入联合国体系。2018年,我国组建了国家移民管理局。现有关于我国对外移民的研究主要依赖对外移民的存量数据,其局限性不言而喻。亚佰(Abel)和桑德(Sander)在2014年的《科学》(Science)上发表一篇具有里程碑意义的论文《量化国际移民流量》(Quantifying Global International Migration Flows),对国际移民流量的情况进行估算。借用该移民数据发现,2005年前后,我国对外移民的数量减少。通过实证研究得出,我国对外移民数量与移入国的经济总量成正比,与距离成反比,人口引力模型得到验证。此外,移入国或地区开放程度和综合发展水平正向影响我国对该国或地区的移民;移入国或地区的自然情况,如国土面积、劳动人口比例等,对我国移民的影响不大。

International migration has become an important manifestation of internationalization,with 232 million people around the world migrating overseas in 2013,receiving widespread attention from the international community.China became a member of the International Organization for Migration(IOM)in June 2016,and IOM officially joined the United Nations system in September 2016.China set up the National Immigration Administration in 2018.Existing studies on China’s emigration have relied mainly on data on emigration flows,the limitations of which are evident.Abel and Sander published a landmark paper,in Science in 2014,which estimates international migration flows.Using this migration data,it is found that the number of emigrants from China declined around 2005.The empirical study shows that the number of Chinese emigrants is positively proportional to the total economic volume of the immigrating countries and inversely proportional to the distance,and the population gravity model is validated.In addition,the degree of openness and the level of comprehensive development of the immigrant country positively influence Chinese emigrants to the country.The natural conditions of the immigrant countries,such as their size and the proportion of the working population,have little influence on Chinese emigration.