对外开放抑或保护主义:印尼经济民族主义适度性思考

Openness to the Outside World or Protectionism:Thoughts on the Moderation of Indonesian Economic Nationalism

“经济民族主义”是近年来全球化进程遭遇重挫背景下一种值得关注的现象,作为东南亚最大经济体的印尼同样也出现了经济民族主义悄然回潮的势头。为了全面认识和理解印尼经济民族主义,本文引入适度性视角,运用层次分析法构建理论分析框架分析印尼国际国内因素如何影响和塑造决策偏好,进而导致其经济民族主义适度性发生变化。研究显示,在不同历史时期,印尼均面临经济民族主义适度性问题,即如何平衡对外开放和保护主义二者之间关系的难题。佐科上台执政以来,印尼适度的经济民族主义中透露出保护主义和激进极端的一面。佐科政府这种复杂的经济民族主义取向尽管短时间内有助于推动印尼国内民族工业和现代化的发展,但长期必定会削弱印尼企业的竞争力。此外,它给东南亚区域经济一体化进程以及中国—印尼双边经济关系带来了新变数,对此我们应时刻保持密切关注。

“Economic nationalism”is a phenomenon worthy of attention under the background of heavy setbacks in the process of globalization in recent years.As the largest economy in Southeast Asia,Indonesia also has the momentum of economic nationalism.In order to fully understand Indonesian economic nationalism,this paper introduces the perspective of moderation and uses the analytical hierarchy process to construct a theoretical framework on how international factors and domestic factors influence and shape Indonesian decision-making preference,and then leads to the change of the moderation of economic nationalism.It is used to test the history and practical practice of Indonesia.It is found that in different historical periods,Indonesia is faced with the problem of moderation of economic nationalism.That is,how to balance the opening up and protectionism.After Joko Widodo came to power,the moderation of Indonesian economic nationalism is mainly manifested in the moderate economic nationalism,but it also reveals the side of protectionism and radical extremes.The complex economic nationalism orientation of Joko Widodo government will certainly weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian enterprises in the long run,although it will help to promote the development of national industry and modernization in Indonesia in a short time.In addition,it has brought new variables to the process of regional economic integration in Southeast Asia and the bilateral economic relations between China and Indonesia,which should be kept close attention at all times.