日本量子科技的最新趋势和未来展望——基于第11次技术预见调查结果的分析

Recent trends and future outlook of quantum science and technology in Japan——Analysis based on the results of the 11th technology foresight survey

量子科学技术在物联网、人工智能、健康医疗、自动驾驶等方面应用广泛,对保障国家安全、促进高质量发展具有重要作用。本文论述了日本量子科技的研究现状,通过分析日本科技政策研究所科技预测中心KIDSASHI平台1定期发布的报告,概述了各国量子科技战略和政策文件,并根据日本第十一次技术预见德尔菲调查结果,从各个主题的重要程度、国际竞争力、科技实现前景、社会实现前景和政策措施等五个方面对日本量子科技的未来发展趋势、应用前景进行了分析。德尔菲调查结果的数据表明,本次调查的702个主题的平均实现时间是2032年,量子科技的22个主题均在2032-2040年之间实现社会目标;日本将在2035年建成国家首台门控量子计算机;单自旋元件、量子传感器和量子中继技术的重要程度和国际竞争力较高。

Quantum science and technology has a wide range of applications in the Internet of Things,artificial intelligence,health care and autonomous driving,and has played an important role in promoting high-quality development and safeguarding national security.This paper introduces the current research status of quantum science and technology in Japan,outlines national quantum science and technology strategies and policy documents through reports published regularly by the KIDSASHI platform of the Science and Technology Forecasting Centre of the Japan Science and Technology Policy Institute,and analyses the future development trends and application prospects of quantum science and technology in Japan from five aspects,including the importance of each topic,international competitiveness,prospects for scientific and technological realization,prospects for social realization,and policy measures,based on the results of the 11th Delphi survey on technology foresight in Japan.According to the data from the JSTPI Delphi survey results,the average time to achieve the 702 topics in this survey is 2032,and all 22 topics of quantum science and technology will achieve their social goals between 2032 and 2040;Japan will build the country's first gated quantum computer in 2035;single spin elements,quantum sensors and quantum relays are rated high in terms of importance and international competitiveness.