摘要
COVID-19 is still a major pandemic threatening all the world.In Palestine,there were 26,764 COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases as of 27th August 2020.In this paper,two statistical approaches,autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and k-th moving averages-ARIMA models are used for modeling the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine.The data was taken from World Health Organization(WHO)website for one hundred seventy-six(176)days,from March 5,2020 through August 27,2020.We identified the best models for the above mentioned approaches that are ARIMA(1,2,4)and 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average e ARIMA(2,2,3).Consequently,we recommended to use the 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average e ARIMA(2,2,3)model in order to forecast new values of the daily cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine.The forecast values are alarming,and giving the Palestinian government a good picture about the next number of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases to review her activities and interventions and to provide some robust structures and measures to avoid these challenges.
