基于外部理论视角的南疆棉花秸秆资源化利用能力评价

Evaluation of Cotton Straw Resource Utilization Capacity in Southern Xinjiang Based on External Theories

提高秸秆资源综合利用效率是推进农业、乡村绿色发展的重要一环,但由于其较大且无法内化的正外部效应阻碍着政府秸秆资源化利用政策推进。首先利用熵权法对2008—2017年新疆南疆5地州棉花秸秆资源的数据进行分析,明确了南疆各地州棉花秸秆资源化能力的分布,随后运用外部理论构建博弈模型,计算了在强制命令型、经济激励型和混合型3种政策情景下的纳什均衡P 1、P 2和P 3,分析政府行为选择对农户棉花秸秆资源化能力影响。结果表明:2008—2017年,南疆农户棉花秸秆资源化能力综合得分由大到小依次为阿克苏地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州、喀什地区、和田地区;在3种政策情况下,政府采取混合政策时求解纳什均衡解数值最小值P 3介于P 1和P 2之间,因此农户进行棉花秸秆资源化利用的概率越大,农户棉花秸秆资源化能力越强,政府为了效用最大化不采取措施的概率越大;③在3种政策的市场均衡条件下混合型政策的短期均衡条件与长期均衡临界相比于其他2种政策环境更易到达,混合型政策更有助于提高农户棉花秸秆资源化能力。

Improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of straw resources is an important part of promoting the green development of agriculture and rural areas.However,due to its large externalization effect that cannot be internalized,it hinders the government’s straw resource utilization policy.This paper firstly uses the entropy weight method to analyze the data of cotton straw resources in five prefectures of southern Xinjiang from 2008 to 2017,and clarifies the distribution of cotton straw resource utilization ability in various states in southern Xinjiang.Then,using external theory to construct a game model,the calculation is carried out.The Nash equilibrium under the three policy scenarios of mandatory order,economic incentive and mixed type P 1,P 2 and P 3,analyzes the influence of government behavior choice on the resource utilization ability of farmers’cotton straw.The research conclusions show that:In 2008-2017,the comprehensive scores of cotton straw resource utilization ability of farmers in South Xinjiang were:Aksu>Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture>Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture>Kashgar>Hetian Area;under the three policy situations,the minimum value of the Nash equilibrium solution when the government adopts the mixed policy is P 3,and the corresponding P 3 is between P 1 and P 2,the greater the probability that farmers will use cotton straw resources,the stronger the ability of farmers to use cotton straw resources,and the greater the probability that the government will not take measures to maximize utility;in three the short-term equilibrium condition of the hybrid policy under market equilibrium conditions and the long-term equilibrium critical value is easier to reach than the other two policy environments,and the mixed policy is more helpful to improve farmers’cotton straw resource utilization ability.